Thursday, January 29, 2015

Apple buys Snappycam photo app company

Apple has reportedly purchased the small company that makes a popular photography app, the latest sign the gadget maker is gearing up efforts to innovate through acquisitions.

SnappyLabs, the company that makes an app called SnappyCam -- which adds functions to smartphone cameras, is Apple' latest target. The company was bought for an undisclosed sum, first reported by tech blog TechCrunch and later confirmed by Re/Code. Apple did not respond to USA TODAY's requests for comment.

SnappyCam is a $1 app that allows smartphone users to modify the way the built-in camera takes photos and how quickly the photos are taken. The app is best known for a feature that allows a smartphone's camera to keep taking photos in rapid succession as long as the on-screen shutter-button is depressed.

Apple's purchase of SnappyCam is the most recent evidence of its move away from being resistant to mergers and buyouts formed when co-founder Steve Jobs was CEO.

The number of buyouts is heating up as Apple faces tougher competition and increasing criticism for its lack of in-house innovation. Despite years of anticipation, Apple-branded smartwatches and TV products have yet to materialize. It is expected to unveil an iWatch in late 2014. Meantime, Samsung and smaller tech players like Pebble have beat Apple to market with smartwatches.

Shares of Apple are down more than 22% from their all-time high set in September 2012. Apple's stock Friday fell $12.15, 2.2%, to close at $540.98.

Last year, Apple bought 11 companies, ranging from social media analytics company TopsyLabs in December to Hopstop.com, a travel information site, in July, says S&P Capital IQ. That was up from just two buyouts in 2011, the last year Jobs served as CEO. Apple only bought one company in all of 2009, a music service called Lala.com that was a rising threat against iTunes, which Apple later shuttered. And in 2010, Apple bought just four companies.

Apple's latest deal underscores how the quality and usability! of cameras in smartphones are increasingly important to users and are becoming selling points for handheld devices. Much of the industry is still playing catch-up with Nokia in this area. Nokia last year launched the Nokia 1020 smartphone, the first smartphone able to capture images at 41 megapixels. Nokia also bundles smartphones with advanced photo processing apps and software.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

5 Tech Stocks to Trade in November

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- It's time to take a closer look at the tech sector. Despite a slow start to the year, tech stocks have started working in recent months. So, as Mr. Market hits the gas into the final corner of 2013, it makes sense to take a closer technical look at five breakout trades shaping up in technology stocks right now.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.

ChannelAdvisor 

Cloud software provider ChannelAdvisor (ECOM) has enjoyed a stellar run since its IPO earlier this year. In the months since ECOM started trading at the beginning of the summer, shares have nearly doubled. But this stock could be headed for even higher ground before the calendar flips over to 2014.

That's because ECOM is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish price setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares at $40 and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as ECOM bounces in between those two technically significant price levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above resistance. When that happens, we've got a buy signal in shares.

ChannelAdvisor has shown investors excellent relative strength all the way up this year, but it's worth noting that the uptrend in ECOM's relative strength line has remained intact even while the ascending triangle has been forming – that's a big sign of strength in this market. I'd recommend buying on a move through $40, from there, keep a protective stop at the 200-day moving average.

Computer Sciences 

$7.6 billion IT services firm Computer Sciences (CSC) has been doing some consolidating of its own for the last few months. Shares have been stuck trading between resistance at $54 a share and support down at $50 a share since mid-July. But despite its sideways bent, there's a trade to be made in CSC right now.

Right now, CSC is forming a rectangle pattern, a consolidation setup that's formed by a pair of horizontal resistance and support level at those $54 and $50 price levels. The rectangle pattern gets its name because it basically "boxes in" shares between those two levels. The signal to watch is the break outside of that box. Support at $50 has some extra strength because it's a level that was previously a ceiling for shares back in March and again in May. That's not uncommon for a round number like $50, but it makes an upside breakout a lot more likely from here.

Momentum, measured by 14-day RSI, has moved into neutral mode in the last week, clearing the way for upside without the risk of shares becoming overbought. If shares of CSC can hold a bid above $54, it's time to buy.

ANSYS 

We're seeing the exact same setup in shares of simulation software maker ANSYS (ANSS). Like CSC, ANSYS is sandwiched between a horizontal price ceiling above shares around $90 a share and a similar horizontal floor at $83.50 a share. From here, the trading signal comes on a breakout outside of the channel.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Rectangles, triangles, and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable – instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That $90 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above it so significant – the move means buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level. Don't be early on this trade.

Guidewire Software 

It doesn't get much more simple than the setup in shares of Guidewire Software (GWRE). You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in this stock. All it takes is a quick look at the chart.

Guidewire is currently trending higher in a well-defined price channel, a setup that gives us a high probability price range for GWRE's shares to trade within. Now, with shares sitting at trendline support, we're coming on a timely buying opportunity; buying at support has proven prescient each of the last six times GWRE has tested the support level that it established in March. But it's still critical to wait for the bounce in shares.

Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: it's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring the Guidewire can actually still catch a bid along that line.

Agilent Technologies 

Last up is Agilent Technologies (A), a stock that's starting to look toppy after a 25% run higher year-to-date.

Agilent has spent most of the year making its way higher in 2013, but the uptrend really accelerated back in July, pushing shares in a straight line to their 52-week high of $53.47 a share. Even though shares are sitting just a couple bucks away from that high-water mark, the head and shoulders top pattern in shares should give buyers some pause right now.

The head and shoulders is formed by two swing highs that hit their head around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a higher high (the head). The sell signal comes on a move through the neckline, which is currently right at $50, a crucial round-number support level for this stock. If Agilent can't hold support at $50, it's time to unload (or short) shares.

Lest you think that the head and shoulders is too well known to be worth trading, the research suggests otherwise: a recent academic study conducted by the Federal Reserve Board of New York found that the results of 10,000 computer-simulated head-and-shoulders trades resulted in "profits [that] would have been both statistically and economically significant." That's good reason to keep this stock in your crosshairs in the days ahead.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS: >>5 Breakout Trades Under $10 >>3 Tech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume >>Buy These 5 REITs to Cash In This Year

 

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

 

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji

 

 


Cree’s Mixed Results Darkened by Outlook

Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) reported first fiscal quarter 2014 results after markets closed on Tuesday. For the quarter, the LED-lighting maker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39 on revenues of $391 million. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.27 on revenues of $315.8 million. First-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.39 and $392.31 million in revenues.

The company warned on earnings in mid-August and today's results were right in line with the mid-points of the ranges the company gave for EPS and revenues. The damage today came from Cree's estimate of second quarter profit. The company says it expects EPS of $0.36 to $0.41 compared with a current consensus estimate of $0.44. The company expects revenues in the range of $410 to $420 million and the analysts' estimate calls for $414.29 million.

In addition to the weak profits, gross margins are expected to be lower in the second quarter and operating expenses are going to rise as the company promotes its new LED Bulb.

The company's CEO said:

Fiscal 2014 is off to a good start, as we delivered solid Q1 revenue and earnings growth in line with our targets. The strong performance was primarily due to increased sales of our lighting products, higher gross margins and improved operating leverage across the business. Based on our backlog, current sales activity and project forecasts, we are targeting growth in all product segments in Q2, led by growth in LED fixtures and the Cree LED Bulb.

Cree may be targeting growth, but that growth is coming at a cost that investors are unhappy paying. The company posted its 52-week high the day before announcing its earnings warning, and an upgrade from one analyst firm in early October pulled the shares up from around $60 to Monday's close at nearly $74. That momentum is history after tonight's earnings.

Cree's shares are trading down about 13.7% at $64.12 in after-hours trading Tuesday, in a 52-week range of $28.08 to $76.00. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $67.50 before today's report.

Monday, January 26, 2015

今年的年货

点击这里打开查看今年年货精选清单,按折扣力度给您整理好了

Legally-married same-sex couples get retirement boost from DOL

labor department, dol, same-sex, retirement, benefits, IRS, Treasury

The Labor Department has released guidance on same-sex couples who are legally married, defining them as spouses — regardless of which state they live — in the context of retirement plans. The agency's ruling hews closely to the Internal Revenue Service's and Treasury Department's Ruling 2013-17, which expands “spouse” and “husband and wife” to include gay couples in the context of federal tax law.

Further, both the IRS/Treasury ruling and the DOL guidance recognize same-sex marriages based on where the couples were married, rather than the state in which they live.

“A rule for employee benefit plans based on state of domicile would raise significant challenges for employers that operate or have employees in more than one state or whose employees move to another state while entitled with benefits,” the Labor Department noted in its guidance.

In reality, had the agency decided to go with recognizing marriages based on where couples reside, the validity of spousal elections and consents on plans could change if the spouses were to move to a jurisdiction that didn't recognize their marriage. This would be an administrative nightmare for record keepers, as they'd have to keep track of changes in residence and tweak their benefits accordingly.

Such was the concern brought by the SPARK Institute Inc., an advocacy group for retirement plan record keepers and service providers.

Furthermore, same sex-spouses could lose their rights if they went to a state that didn't recognize their marriage.

The Labor Department's guidance not only covers the entire U.S. and Puerto Rico, but all of the U.S. territories, including the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Walgreens prices vary as much as 55% at some stores, study finds

walgreens prices

The same item can cost as much as 55% more depending on which Walgreens location you choose, a new study found.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Shop at the wrong Walgreens and you could end up paying significantly more than if you'd bought the exact same items at a store on the other side of town, a recent study found.

While some price variation occurs at Rite Aid (RAD, Fortune 500) and CVS (CVS, Fortune 500), Walgreens (WAG, Fortune 500) was the worst offender, with a single item costing as much as 55% more depending on a store's location, according to a study of 485 drugstore locations in New York, Los Angeles, Orange County, Calif., and Dallas-Forth Worth by the National Consumers League and labor union coalition Change to Win.

The study was based on the listed prices for a basket of 25 items, ranging from Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice to Huggies "Little Movers" diapers. Depending on the city, the chain was up to five times more likely to have store locations in the same market that charged different prices.

"It's a wake-up call I think for consumers," said Sally Greenberg, executive director of the National Consumers League "The expectation is that you're going to have the same prices within a chain."

In Dallas-Fort Worth, for example, Walgreens shoppers could pay $3 more for Folgers coffee depending on the location they chose or $3.50 extra for cold medication.

In New York City, a box of 10 Claritin allergy tablets cost anywhere from $10.49 to $15.99 depending on the Walgreens store. The same bottle of eye drops, meanwhile, cost $9.99 at a location in Queens and $15.49 a subway ride away on 57th street in Manhattan.

The differences can add up. The basket of 25 items cost $38 -- or nearly 20% -- more at a Walgreens' flagship in New York City than it typically cost at other nearby locations.

How Walgreens' acquisitions create value   How Walgreens' acquisitions create value

Walgreens spokesman Jim Graham said in a statement that the store's prices reflect the company's cost of doing business in different neighborhoods.

"Costs can vary from one location to another, even when they are a few blocks apart in dense urban areas, based on the store's cost of real estate, its hours of operation including whether it is open 24 hours, labor costs and the number of customers it serves each day, among other factors," he said.

Price ranges of at least 20% were found among products at CVS stores, but such large price disparities were much less frequent than at Walgreens. At Rite Aid, "virt! ually no products" had that large of a price difference, according to the study.

CVS said that prices may vary at different stores based on local competition and other operational factors. Rite Aid did not respond to requests for comment.

To conduct the study, researchers checked prices at Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid stores in New York City, Los Angeles and Orange County and Walgreens and CVS stores in Dallas-Fort Worth. There are no Rite Aid stores in Dallas-Fort Worth.

Want to find the store with the best prices? Follow these tips from the National Consumers League.

Ask about price matching: While they won't be able to match online prices, managers are often able to match prices from other store locations of the same chain.

Shop around: Keep track of prices of your drugstore staples at different chains and locations. To top of page

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Not Even Bad News Can Derail Gold Stocks Today

After getting shellacked yesterday, gold mining stocks are heading higher today–despite only a slight gain in the precious metal.

Bloomberg

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has gained 2.6% to $29.85 today at 10:35 a.m., while Barrick Gold (ABX) has climbed 3.2% to $20.30, Goldcorp (GG) has gained 3% to $30.80 and Newmont Mining (NEM) has risen 1.9% to $32.71. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has ticked up 0.2% today.

Even bad news has failed to dent the rise in gold stocks today. NewGold (NGD), for instance, has gained 1.8% to $7.49 despite the fact that the wall of one of its mines collapsed. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

New Gold reported a pit fall movement at its Cerro San Pedro Mine in Mexico in which about 800,000 metric tons of material moved. It said no one was injured, but mining in the area has been temporarily suspended. It also said it expects Cerro San Pedro's 2013 production will be below original expectations.

Sterne Agee’s Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain remain bullish on the precious-metal stocks:

So far in August, gold and silver equities are up 13% vs gold price increase of 7%. Gold managements have been quite focused on capital and cost initiatives in attempts to adjust their business towards a lower realized price range. Like the underlying metals, we believe the shares appear to be finding a base level of valuation. With investor sentiment still quite skeptical, any supportive macro news flow could provide fuel for a rally.

Their favorites include Newmont and Coeur Mining (CDE), which they rate Buy. They rate Barrick Gold Neutral.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

B/E Aerospace's Earnings Beat Last Year's by 24%

B/E Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV  ) reported earnings on July 23. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended June 30 (Q2), B/E Aerospace met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Margins expanded across the board.

Revenue details
B/E Aerospace booked revenue of $850.3 million. The 16 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw net sales of $842.8 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 11% higher than the prior-year quarter's $768.1 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.89. The 17 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.85 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.89 for Q2 were 29% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.69 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 38.4%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 18.7%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 10.9%, 160 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 586 members out of 608 rating the stock outperform, and 22 members rating it underperform. Among 156 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 153 give B/E Aerospace a green thumbs-up, and three give it a red thumbs-down.

Looking for alternatives to B/E Aerospace? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add B/E Aerospace to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

BlackBerry Bombs, and Shares Tank

On Friday morning, struggling smartphone maker BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) released its much-anticipated results for the first quarter of FY14. The company reported revenue of $3.1 billion, up 15% sequentially, and a GAAP loss of $0.16 per share.

The company's EPS result was hit by a $0.03 charge for restructuring costs and a $0.10 impact because of Venezuelan foreign currency restrictions, which have prevented carriers there from paying subscriber fees owed to BlackBerry. Even excluding these negative impacts, the company would have posted a small loss, whereas analysts (on average) expected a modest profit for the quarter. Moreover, the company doesn't expect any immediate improvement, and therefore forecast an operating loss for the current quarter.

The weaker-than-expected results and the soft outlook caused BlackBerry shares to drop as much as 29% on Friday morning. Management admitted that it's difficult to predict future sales and profitability trends because of the tough competitive environment. Should BlackBerry investors throw in the towel?

BB10: Another problem child?
The main cause of BlackBerry's earnings miss was the relatively slow growth of BB10 phone shipments. The first smartphone running the new BB10 OS -- the Z10 -- was released in late January, and BlackBerry managed to ship roughly 1 million units in the first month. Last quarter, BlackBerry had a full quarter of Z10 shipments, and the company also launched Q10 in late April -- the first BB10 device with BlackBerry's traditional physical QWERTY keyboard.

The BlackBerry Q10 smartphone (courtesy of BlackBerry)

The Q10 launch seemed especially promising because most of the diehard BlackBerry fans who have stuck with the brand want a physical keyboard. However, despite having a full quarter of Z10 sales and more than a month of Q10 sales, BlackBerry still shipped just 2.7 million BB10 phones during the quarter.

The monthly shipment rate was thus slightly lower in Q1 than in the previous quarter (when the company shipped 1 million Z10 phones in one month). The BB10 sales figure missed expectations: Most analysts were expecting 3 million to 4 million BB10 shipments in the quarter.

Unfortunately, the company refused to quantify the breakdown in shipments between Z10 and Q10. There are thus two plausible scenarios that investors have to consider. First, it's possible that Z10 sales "fell off a cliff" after the initial 1 million units shipped in the prior quarter. If 50% or more of last quarter's shipments were Q10 phones, that would suggest that while Z10 demand is fading, Q10 is seeing good upgrade demand from current BlackBerry users.

Alternatively, it is possible that the slowdown in Z10 shipments was more modest and device sales missed estimates because of lower-than-expected Q10 shipments. That scenario would be more troubling, especially if it indicated weak Q10 demand rather than supply constraints. One of the biggest points in favor of a BlackBerry comeback is that the company has devoted fans, whom most analysts expect to be the initial market for BB10 devices (especially the Q10). If even those fans are hesitant to buy the new BB10 offerings, it would be devastating to the company.

Looking ahead
BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins said all the right things on the company's conference call on Friday morning. He talked about investing heavily this year to assure long-term success, rather than generating short-term profits at the expense of long-term growth. However, investors are understandably skeptical about the company's turnaround plans, given BlackBerry's turbulent past.

I still think the company can secure a niche for itself within the smartphone market, while also broadening its software and service offerings. The Q10 smartphone just launched this month in the U.S., one of BlackBerry's largest markets. Moreover, it could take a few months to see sales build, because -- unlike competitors -- BlackBerry relies heavily on bulk sales to government and enterprise clients. Corporate IT departments typically take several months to approve new devices, so investors should expect the fall to be make-or-break time for BB10 in the corporate and government market.

Fortunately, the company still has a very strong balance sheet, with more than $3 billion of cash and investments at the end of May. This gives BlackBerry plenty of breathing room to execute its business plan over the next several quarters and hopefully create some momentum around BB10. Investors betting on a quick turnaround were disappointed on Friday; the earnings report was definitely a setback.

Still, while BlackBerry's prospects have dimmed, the curtain has not yet fallen on this former smartphone giant. However, time is of the essence in rebuilding the BlackBerry brand to produce a return to growth.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged among the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

1 Reason to Stick With Netflix, and 1 Reason to Bolt

With the splashy premieres of Arrested Development and House of Cards behind it, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  )  has entered a new phase of its business. While the streaming service will always rely on catalog content, original series are becoming critical to Netflix's future.

That push into exclusive original shows holds promise, but it also brings new risks to the business model. In the video below, Fool contributor Demitrios Kalogeropoulos takes a fresh look at Netflix. Demitrios highlights one good reason to buy shares here: the lack of serious competition over its streaming members. On the other hand, rising debt levels are a good reason for investors to consider selling shares.

The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so click here and claim your copy today.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Michael Kors Had Better Look Out

At the very beginning of this year, Gap (NYSE: GPS  ) decided to drop $130 million to pick up a little chain of stores called Intermix. The brand has only 32 locations in North America and no international footprint. It sits well outside Gap's other brands, offering $2,000 dresses and jeans for hundreds of dollars.

Gap is expecting good things from Intermix, though. The brand has very little online presence and no international offerings. Last week, management highlighted the potential for Intermix, no doubt hoping to capitalize on some of the success that Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS  ) has seen recently.

High-end, high-margin
In its first foray into high fashion, Gap decided to purchase a non-designer. Intermix doesn't make its own clothing; it's a boutique for other designers. That means that Gap was able to get into the business without having to acquire excess production and design capabilities. The boutiques don't carry Kors but do have offerings from designers such as Jimmy Choo and Fendi.

While the product offering is similar to Kors', the operating model is closer to The Buckle's. Buckle also carries other brands -- though there is a Buckle line. The company used that middleman status to run a 27% operating margin last quarter. Gap would love to have that pulling its operating margin up, as last year it managed only 12%.

The competition
Kors isn't going to go quietly along with Gap's growth plan, though. The company has been pushing sales up at a crazy pace over the past nine months. Comparable sales are up 41% across the brand, and total revenue was up 71%. Kors' brand strength has never been higher, and it's quickly becoming the go-to brand for big names.

If Intermix wants to compete, Gap is going to have to scale up quickly and expansively. Thirty-two locations can't compete with Kors' 388 stores. But even if Gap can't beat Kors, it still has a chance to break into a profitable new market. High-end customers have bounced back faster than Middle America from the crisis, and sales at many luxury stores have been strong.

If Intermix can tap into that segment, it should be able to help generate extra cash for Gap and bring that operating margin up slightly. That will give the company more room to run with its secondary brands, such as Athleta.

In the next three years, as Intermix speeds up and Kors slows down, the fight is going to get hotter. Be on the lookout for an Intermix near you soon, and watch Kors' margins to see whether the company has to dip into discounting to fight off the new threat from Gap.

Michael Kors is one of today's hottest high-end fashion brands, and that's translated into one of the best-performing stocks in retail -- since its debut on the market in late 2011, the share price has more than doubled. But with all that growth, has the stock finally become too expensive, or is there still room left to run? The Motley Fool's new premium report on Michael Kors gives investors all the information they need to make the right decision. We cover the key must-watch areas, opportunities, and threats to the company that investors need to know. To claim your copy, simply click here now for instant access.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Week's Winners and Losers: Tough Sell for Some Gadgets

3dsystems.com3D Systems made these sugar cubes with a 3-D printer There were plenty of winners and losers this week, with a leading toy maker posting strong growth across its product lines and one of this year's most hyped smartphone rollouts struggling to connect with consumers. Here's a rundown of the week's smartest moves and biggest blunders. Fire Phone -- Loser It has been widely assumed that Amazon.com (AMZN) hasn't gained a lot of traction with its first foray into proprietary smartphones, but now we have confirmation directly from the leading online retailer. Amazon took a $170 million accounting hit on Thursday to write down the value of its Fire Phone inventory and supplier commitment costs. Amazon isn't ready to throw in the towel on the smartphone, but it clearly miscalculated in a big way by not pricing it more aggressively. It may not have much of a choice now. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) -- Winner The restaurant industry's market darling lived up to the hype with another blowout quarter. Revenue and earnings climbed 31 percent and 56 percent, respectively, over the prior year. The most stunning nugget in Chipotle's report is that comparable-restaurant sales soared 19.8 percent during the quarter. Yes, the average Chipotle rang up 19.8 percent more in sales than it did during last year's third quarter. A springtime menu price increase has helped spice up sales, but Chipotle continues to be a fast-casual rock star. The stock did disappoint the market by initiating a lackluster outlook for 2015. That was enough to find the bears outnumbering the bulls. However, it's hard to generate a nearly 20 percent spike in store-level comps without being called a winner. 3D Systems (DDD) -- Loser 3-D printing may be one of the coolest technologies to arise in years, but consumer adoption has been slow. Printing physical objects sounds cool -- and there are plenty of consumer and industrial applications -- but the high prices of printers have kept 3-D printing from cracking the mainstream market. 3D Systems is a leader in 3-D printing, but lately the leader has been a bleeder. 3D Systems has shed nearly 60 percent of its value this year. Its latest tumble came on Wednesday after it announced preliminary third-quarter results that show sales and profitability falling short of expectations. 3D Systems blames the shortfall on delays in new consumer printers and weak sales of its metal printers. If you ever see a 3-D printer in action, you'll come to appreciate the potential of printing out everything from figurines to medical products. However, until the printers get cheaper and, ideally, faster, the revolution will be slow in coming around. Hasbro (HAS) -- Winner Traditional toys aren't dead just yet. Hasbro kicked off the week with a better-than-expected quarterly report. Revenue moved higher after Hasbro posted top-line gains in all seven of its leading toy franchises. Hasbro's strong report came a trading day after rival Mattel (MAT) missed Wall Street's profit target. Mattel has come up short on the bottom line every single quarter over the past year. Hasbro is clearly getting the better of its longtime rival. Sears Holdings (SHLD) -- Loser Things are going from bad to worse at Sears Holdings. The parent company of Kmart and Sears is closing more of its fading department stores. Sears said that at least 5,457 employees will be let go as the struggling retailer will close 46 Kmart, 30 Sears and 31 Sears Auto Centers. Sears Holdings has already closed nearly 100 stores this year. The carnage continues, but the real problem is that the company won't make the necessary investments to update its remaining stores -- 1,077 Kmart stores and 793 Sears stores in the United States as of Aug. 2 -- to make them relevant to modern shoppers. More from Rick Aristotle Munarriz
•As Multiplexes Slump, IMAX Thinks Big, and Grows Bigger •If Everybody Hates Yelp, Why Is It Still Growing? •Halloween Is Raking in Scary Profits for Theme Parks

Saturday, January 17, 2015

This E&P Firm Is Attractive Enough

In this article, let's take a look at Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG), a $14.21 billion market cap company, which is an independent oil and gas company engaged in development, exploration and production in North America

Huge Assets

The company´s operations are primarily focused in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, the Eagle Ford in south Texas and in Oklahoma. The company's asset base is now among the most diverse of the small oil and gas firms.

At the end of last year, the company had reserves of 5.5 trillion cubic feet of equivalent, with net production of 1,130 million cubic feet of equivalent per day. Natural gas represented 96% of production and 97% of reserves.

The firm controls a highly productive, low-cost drilling inventory targeting the dry gas Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania.

The Marcellus Shale

It is the star of the firm, because it is the largest operating area and represents its largest growth and capital investment area, with approximately 200,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play.

Last year, the production had an increase of 70.3%, from 209.3 Bcfe to 356.5 Bcfe. This number represents about 86% of total production. Further, the gas company invested $815.8 million here and drilled 94.5 net horizontal wells.

Eagle Ford Shale

The company holds more than 60,000 net acres in this oil window at relatively low cost. Last year, production of net liquids and natural gas has increased and represents approximately 3% of full-year production. Further, the firm invested $261.5 million s.

Estimated One-Year Price

According to Yahoo! Finance, the estimated one-year target share price is $42.33, so if you buy shares at current market price ($34.05), your return from price appreciation would be 24.3%. In addition, you have to consider any cash flow received by the asset. So for holding the stock one year, you'll be paid a dividend of 2 cents per share each quarter, totalizing $0.08 at the end of the year. If we divide this number by current price per share, we obtain the dividend yield, which is the other component of the return on an investment for a stock, and in this case is 0.23%. So the total expected return for investing in Cabot is 24.53%, which we believe is an attractive stock return.

Revenues, Margins and Profitability

Looking at profitability, revenue growth by 18.57% led earnings per share increased in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago ($0.28 vs $0.21). During the past fiscal year, the company increased its bottom line. It earned $0.67 versus $0.31 in the prior year. This year, Wall Street expects an improvement in earnings ($1.15 versus $0.67).

Finally, let´s compare the best measure of performance for a firm's management: the return on equity. The ROE is useful for comparing the profitability of a company to that of other firms in the same industry.

Ticker

Company

ROE (%)

COG

Cabot

12.69

ECA

Encana Corp.

4.59

CPG

Crescent Point Energy Corp.

1.70

CXO

Concho Resources Inc.

6.68

EQT

EQT Corp.

9.68

 

Industry Median

-1.00

The company has a current ROE of 12.69% which is higher than the industry median and the ones exhibit by Encana (ECA), Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Concho Resources (CXO) and EQT (EQT). In general, analysts consider ROE ratios in the 15-20% range as representing attractive levels for investment. It is very important to understand this metric before investing and it is important to look at the trend in ROE over time.

1409884252091.png

Relative Valuation

In terms of valuation, the stock sells at a trailing P/E of 37.8x, trading at a discount compared to the average of the industry. To use another metric, its price-to-book ratio of 5.8x indicates a premium versus the industry average of 1.86x while the price-to-sales ratio of 7.2x is above the industry average of 4.2x.

As we can see in the next chart, the stock price has an upward trend in the five-year period. If you had invested $10.000 five years ago, today you could have $35.458, which represents a 28.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

1409884225087.png

Final Comment

With a good asset quality, Cabot is well positioned among the E&P firms, with good number of available drilling locations, reasonable per-unit production costs and not excessive prices.

The Marcellus assets continued to have good productivity and we think this trend will continue. The U.S. natural gas industry could remain under pressure but we think Cabot has good drivers for growth. The Marcellus will reach 90% of Cabot's production in the near future. Moreover, the PE relative valuation and the return on equity that significantly exceeds the industry average and make me feel bullish on this stock.

Hedge fund gurus like Leon Cooperman (Trades, Portfolio), Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio), John Burbank (Trades, Portfolio), Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio), Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio), Ron Baron (Trades, Portfolio) and John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio) added this stock to their portfolios in the second quarter of 2014.

Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned

Also check out: Jean-Marie Eveillard Undervalued Stocks Jean-Marie Eveillard Top Growth Companies Jean-Marie Eveillard High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Jean-Marie Eveillard keeps buying John Burbank Undervalued Stocks John Burbank Top Growth Companies John Burbank High Yield stocks, and Stocks that John Burbank k

Despite risk, most Californians don't have earthquake insurance

napa earthquake Northern California was awakened by a 6.0 earthquake early Sunday morning. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Despite living in a state known for its active fault lines, most Californians don't buy earthquake insurance.

The 6.1 magnitude earthquake that rattled Northern California early Sunday morning shocked a populated area, damaging buildings, sparking fires, rupturing utility lines and injuring at least 176 people.

Experts say it is too early to fully put a dollar figure on the damage, and the U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake's economic impact is likely more than $1 billion.

Only about one in ten Californians have insurance to cover the damage to their homes and property, according to the California Earthquake Authority. It estimated the numbers are even lower in some of the areas that were affected Sunday, such as Napa, where as few as 6% have coverage.

Surveys show the percentage of homeowners who have earthquake insurance is declining across the country.

The Insurance Information Institute in May found that 10% of homeowners in the western United States have coverage, down from 22% a year ago. Nationwide, just 7% carry coverage, a drop of 3 percentage points in the last year.

People with higher incomes are more likely to buy coverage than those who make less, the surveys reported.

California does not require homeowners, renters or building owners to buy such insurance, and earthquake damage is usually excluded from other homeowner insurance policies.

The mansion that measured earthquakes   The mansion that measured earthquakes

The cost of coverage varies, including by location and what the home is made of, but on average it costs California homeowners about $860 per year.

More people would carry earthquake coverage if not for misperceptions about what policies do and do not cover, said California Earthquake Authority CEO Glenn Pomeroy. The length of time between major earthquakes may also "lull people into a false sense of security." His group is a nonprofit insurer created by the state legislature after the 1994 Northridge earthquake, ranked the most expensive in U.S. history.

Earthquake insurance generally covers the home itself and personal propert! y inside it. Some plans offer cash for emergency repairs and fund temporary living arrangements if a home is badly damaged or destroyed.

Those who do have coverage "should call their agent immediately and get the process going," Pomeroy said.

Have you decided against buying earthquake insurance? Please tell us your story in an email to gregory.wallace@cnn.com.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Zynga's Mobile Investments Can Take It Higher

Zynga (ZNGA) is trying hard to turnaround. Although the company's share price has declined in 2014, it looks like a good investment, primarily because of its investments in mobile. Zynga is at the forefront of an entertainment revolution. The rapid consumer adoption of smartphones and tablets is expected bring unprecedented opportunity, and games are the number one time-based use case for consumers.

In the next few years, more than 1.3 billion people are expected to be gaming on their mobile devices. By 2017, one-third the world's population is forecasted to be using smartphones and the tablet installed base is projected to cross 1 billion. Zynga is targeting this opportunity.

Zynga's moves

In addition to crossing 4 million installs, Zynga is seeing a number of early signs that FarmVille 2: Country Escape is resonating well with consumers. In the U.S., the game has achieved number one top free app and number one top free game on iPad. On iPhone, the game has achieved the top three positions in the free app and free game charts. Across the Apple platform, it has reached the number one top free app position in 20 countries, the number one top free game in 40 countries and has broken into the top 20 grossing chart on both the iPad and the iPhone in the U.S.

The primary focus of the gaming major is to always achieve category leading engagement and retention. FarmVille 2: Country Escape is already showing strong player engagement metrics compared to other Zynga games.

It has created a rich entertainment experience that matters to the mobile play patterns consumers want which is illustrated by the amount of time people are playing them.

Strong engagement with users

Zynga has witnessed strong engagement from these existing FarmVille web players, an encouraging number of new players are coming to the franchise for the first time because of Country Escape on mobile. This is believed to be an important milestone for it with focus on growing and sustaining its core franchises and demonstrates Zynga's ability to sustain its franchises over time and create mobile entertainment experiences that meaningfully engage and extend its games to new large – scale groups of consumers around the world.

At the same time, Zynga expects to deliver both breakthrough consumer experiences and profitability as it continues to align its business around focus, quality and execution. In order to achieve this, it remains focused on doing more with less and achieving more operating leverage across the organization.

Additionally, in the first quarter, Zynga reduced its technology spend by 15%, driven by restructuring and discontinuing one of its data centers. All of these changes have put Zynga in a stronger position to deliver growth in 2014 and beyond.

Conclusion

According to Yahoo Finance, the forward P/E ratio of 51.33 indicates that the stock is costly as compared to the industry's average of 17.41. However, it is better than Electronic Arts, which has a P/E ratio of 1,373.08. The PEG ratio of 5.13, above 1, depicts slower growth as compared to the industry's average of 1. Instead, its competitor Electronic Arts has an impressive PEG ratio of 0.80. The current ratio of 3.32 depicts healthy current assets. Therefore, apart from the weaknesses shown in the results above, the company is worth investing in seeing the impressive CAGR for the next 5 years of 30%, which is well above the industry's average of 18.57%. Hence, investors are advised to bet on this growth story and expect satisfactory returns in the long run.

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Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Amazon Tops America's Most Reputable Companies 2014

America's 25 Most Reputable Companies 2014

In a 12,000-word New Yorker magazine story about Amazon.com this February, investigative journalist George Packer details how the 20-year-old Seattle online retailing behemoth has chewed up and spit out the U.S. publishing business and run hundreds of small bookshops out of business. Thousands of retailers, both online and off, are battling to stay alive in the face of Amazon's onslaught. The company has also been the subject of several exposés about the exploitative working conditions in its giant, un-air-conditioned warehouses. Given all that, I would have thought that a ranking of US companies by reputation would have put Amazon well down on the list. Instead Amazon has taken the No. 1 slot this year among 150 large publicly traded US companies rated by Reputation Institute (R.I.), a 17-year-old reputation management consulting firm based in New York and Copenhagen. (See the bottom of this post for the complete list of companies.)

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Weatherproof Profits: Plays on Climate Change

Politics aside, Benjamin Shepherd looks at the long-term investment implications of global climate change. The editor of the Inflation Survival Letter also highlights two companies poised to benefit from this trend.

Steve Halpern: We're here with Benjamin Shepherd, editor of the newsletter Inflation Survival Report. How are you doing today, Ben?

Benjamin Shepherd: Good, and it's actually the Inflation Survival Letter.

Steve Halpern: Oh, I'm sorry. Forgive me.

Benjamin Shepherd: That's fine.

Steve Halpern: Before we turn to specific investment ideas, would you tell our listeners about Inflation Survival Letter and your overall strategy and the longer-term goals behind the publication?

Benjamin Shepherd: Sure, we actually launched this past November. It's our belief that we're seeing rising inflationary pressures in the US economy as it returns to growth and continues to return to health following the massive recession of a few years back.

We've seen the price of food double over the past ten years. We're seeing wages not keeping up with the rising costs so, really, our goal is to help people hedge their investment portfolios to keep up and exceed these rising costs.

Basically, we do that by focusing on companies and industries that have some built-in resistance to inflation, because they have the power to pass those cost increases through to consumers or end users.

We also really pay a lot of attention to valuation. It's very important that you not overpay for assets, especially income-generating assets, which we use quite a bit to add an extra cushion against inflation.

Steve Halpern: Now, you recently explored a fascinating subject in your newsletter; climate change. And you looked at the potential investment implications of what is a very long-term trend. Could you expand on that for our listeners?

Benjamin Shepherd: Sure, climate change is actually something that's really overlooked, particularly in the context of inflation.

When people think about inflation, they tend to think about the monetary policy side of things, governments printing money, but the other leading cause of inflation is, primarily, supply shocks, and climate change has the potential to be the mother of all supply shocks.

We've already seen that as far as green prices go, just over the past few years with the massive droughts that we experienced in the Midwest, droughts and fires in Russia and Ukraine, fires and massive flooding in Australia, and all of those forces have combined to drive a more than 30% average increase in the cost of grains, just over the past few years and, ultimately, that causes a whole host of price increases.

Obviously, there are the foodstuffs themselves, things like cereal. The price of meat goes up with the higher cost of grain.

Even the cost of gasoline goes up because of the ethanol mandates, so climate change really has the potential to have a huge impact on investors' portfolios and it's really a stealth impact because people generally just don't think about it.

Steve Halpern: Now, one investment idea in the sector that you like is the area of water management. Could you tell us about Lindsay Corp. (LNN)?

Benjamin Shepherd: Sure, Lindsay Corp. is a large conglomerate. It operates primarily in two main markets. The first is highway infrastructure.

Page 1 | Page 2 | Next Page The expert featured in this column, Benjamin Shepherd, may or may not own positions in any investment vehicle mentioned here. The views and opinions expressed are his or her own.

Monday, January 12, 2015

David Marsh: Tests looming for Janet Yellen

Janet Yellen will become the world's most powerful woman on Feb. 1. The Federal Reserve is still the world's monetary policeman. The dollar is by a large margin the supreme international currency.

At the helm of the Fed's board and the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, Yellen can produce global waves. She will be presiding over the gradual withdrawal of the Fed's extraordinary monetary stimulus of the past five years. The process should eventually bring rewards for the U.S. and its partners, but it can cause pain too – as the turbulence of the last few days have shown in emerging market economies ranging from Brazil and Turkey to Argentina and India.

In aftermath of the financial crisis, central banks across the world, are being called upon to take up an ever-wider set of responsibilities - not just monetary stability but also fiscal policies and banking supervision. All this brings strains on their operating maneuverability as well as on their independence.

MARKETS: Stocks swoon amid Fed, emerging market worries

FED OUTLOOK: Steady Fed policy could steady markets

The burdens on Yellen are acute. Yet in her new role, both in America and globally, she is likely to accomplish that task better than most. She can combine her first-class economics training with ability to drawn on diverse experience to master two great challenges: returning U.S. monetary policy to a more normal path, and helping prepare America for a multi-polar world in which it shares economic and financial power more equitably with other countries, not least in Asia.

What is remarkable about Yellen's appointment is not that she is a woman. She was the best candidate for the job. More important, she had to overcome the favoritism of the old boy network at the White House. President Obama haplessly clung, almost to the last moment, to his preferred choice, former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers – a brilliant man, but one whose intellectual skittishness and sometimes unm! annerly behavior would have made him highly accident-prone.

The president eventually caved in and accepted Yellen's impressive credentials. By raising her reputation for independence and damaging that of the president for sound judgment, the episode harmed Obama much more than Yellen.

Yellen is a Keynesian economist but not dogmatic. She has been sometimes overshadowed by her husband, George Akerlof, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001. Yellen now moves truly out of the shadows. She is extremely smart but has no need to appear the smartest person in the room.

Already, for reasons unconnected to gender, she has made history for several reasons. At 67, she is the oldest person ever appointed to be Fed chief and the first vice chairman to ascend to the top job. She is the first Democrat called upon to lead the Fed since President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker in 1979. She and Stanley Fischer, another veteran of global reputation, will be a star team.

In past years Yellen has drawn attention to the balance sheet vulnerabilities of U.S. banks that would face large write-down on their bond holdings should the Fed abruptly stop asset purchases. If the bond purchase program wind-down coincides, as planned, with a pick-up in the economy, an increase in banks' lending and a reduction in their government bond holdings, then this factor will be a great deal much less crucial.

Generally, though, political and economic circumstances will make 2014 a lot less benign than 2013 for financial markets.

Diminutive, low-pitched Yellen was considered by some in the vetting process last fall to lack gravitas – as if only a 6-foot-7 inch, gravel-voiced cigar-chomping male like Paul Volcker could be said to have that quality. The Fed faces enormous challenges. A 5- foot-3 inch lady from Brooklyn who speaks softly but carries a big monetary stick is not the worst person to tackle them.

David Marsh is chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions ! Forum (OM! FIF), a London-based think tank that promotes dialogue between private-sector and public institutions on world finance.

Gold gains as equity push slows

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — After investors got their fill on stocks, they turned back to gold on Friday, pushing prices up for the second consecutive day in an otherwise sluggish week.

AFP/Getty Images

Gold for February delivery (GCG4)  rose $2.70, or 0.2%, to $1,242.90 an ounce in electronic trade. March silver (SIH4)  rose 9 cents, or 0.5%, to $20.15 an ounce.

But any move to the upside will likely be short-lived until more of the shine comes off frothy equities, according to Kitco News contributor Jim Wyckoff.

"The bullish ways of the U.S. and other world stock markets are working against many other competing asset classes, including precious metals and other raw commodities," he said. "Until the air starts to come out of the in-my-opinion presently overly inflated stock-market balloon, raw commodities will continue to languish at best."

Click to Play Stock Bulls: You want the 49ers in the Super Bowl

Investors should hope the San Francisco 49ers make it to the Super Bowl. MarketWatch's Tom Bemis says this is not because he is based in the SF Bay, but because data show the market tends to do well when the Niners win the NFC. (Photo: Getty Images)

On the economic front, the Commerce Department is due to release new-homes construction data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Industrial production, slated for 9:15 a.m, is forecast to slow to 0.3% growth from 1.1% in November.

There's also job openings data for November at 10 a.m. and a speech from Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker at 12:30 p.m.

A day earlier, gold futures put an end to their mild losing streak, thanks to a decline in U.S. stocks and weakness in the dollar (DXY)  that helped prices score for their first gain in three sessions.

Elsewhere in metals trading Friday, platinum for April delivery (PLJ4)  improved by $6.10, or 0.4%, to $1,437.60 an ounce, while March palladium (PAH4)   tacked on a dime to $743.90 an ounce.

High-grade copper for March delivery   (HGH4)  lost a penny, or 0.1%, to $3.34 a pound.

Other must-read MarketWatch stories include:

Citi goes bullish on miners for first time in three years

Movie mogul says he and Streep will take down NRA — and reverse gun-stock rally

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Smells Like Trouble for Dell; & 4 More Things to Know Today

Intel's OEM Partners Unveil The Latest Intel-based Tablet & Tablet ConvertiblesBloomberg via Getty Images • Here's the last thing you want as a feature on your slick new new laptop: the scent of a litter box. Seems a number of Dell (DELL) customers have been complaining that their Latitude 6430u Ultrabooks smell strongly of cat urine. Dell is assuring everyone that the odor is unrelated to pee of any kind, nor was there a biological contaminant involved. Just a problem in the manufacturing process, which it has sorted out. • Speaking of smells, among expats, China now ranks No. 1 for providing the best overseas experience -- its smog and other pollution issues notwithstanding -- according to HSBC's annual Expat Explorer Survey. Countries were ranked based on a variety of categories related to economics, experience and raising children abroad. China jumped from No. 7 last year to knock off 2012 top dog Singapore, which slipped to No. 3. • Thanks to a class-action settlement between video game titan Electronic Arts (EA) and a group of former college football players, we can now put a price tag on our high-caliber college athletes: Somewhere in the neighborhood of $133 to $200 apiece. Based on the $40 million its setting aside to cover the cost of the deal, that's about what EA will be paying each of the 200,000 to 300,000 past and current student-athletes whose likenesses were used without their consent in NCAA Football games by EA Sports. (And yes, after this year, EA will stop making new games in the franchise.) • It's good news, bad news out of Washington. Good news: The federal deficit for 2013 will be the smallest it's been since 2008, according to the Treasury. The $680 billion deficit is less than half of the record high hit in 2009 of $1.4 trillion. Bad news: While about 4/5 of the decline was due to higher revenues from taxes (yay, improving economy!), the rest came from the painful sequester (those across-the-board spending cuts that were designed to be so horrible that they'd force Congress to find a better solution.) And come January, a whole new round of sequester cuts is due to kick in, even more painful than the first batch. • And finally, during Facebook's (FB) earnings call Wednesday afternoon, CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed two fascinating new projects under way at the social media giant: Artificial Intelligence, and a better speech-recognition product. No word for Zuckerberg about plans to combine the two, but if Facebook learns how to talk to us, and how to think, ... well, let's just hope this version of SkyNet will "friend" us before it conquers the world.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Beige Book: Shutdown Takes Toll on Growth in Some Areas

Beige Book federal reserve economy growth gdp government shutdownNam Y. Huh/AP WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve said economic growth slowed in a few key regions of the United States from September through early October, as businesses grew worried about a budget impasse that led to a partial government shutdown. Overall growth continued at a modest to moderate pace, according to the Fed survey released Wednesday. Eight of the Fed's 12 banking districts reported the same growth rate reported in August through early September. But four districts -- Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City -- reported that growth had slowed. Businesses around the country remained optimistic about the future and consumer spending continued to increase, helped by strong auto sales. But many businesses noted increased uncertainty because of the partial federal shutdown, which began on Oct. 1, and a looming deadline to raise federal borrowing limit. Boston, in particular, reported that the tourism industry was worried about the impact of a prolonged shutdown. And several Districts reported that businesses were cautious about hiring. Senate leaders announced Wednesday that they had an agreement to avert a threatened Treasury default and reopen the government after the 16-day shutdown. The House was likely to approve the measure, too, leading many to anticipate passage in both chambers before the end of the day. The Fed's survey, known as the beige book, will be used by central bank policymakers in their next meeting on Oct. 29-30. Economists believe the Fed maintain its $85-billion-a-month in bond purchases to offset the impact of the shutdown.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

The various benefits of your Employee Provident Fund

Here are some of these which every subscriber should know-

PF Entitles for Pension Too

There are two elements in EPF- Provident Fund and EPS or Employee Pension Scheme introduced in 1995. The entire contribution of subscriber (12% of basic +DA) goes towards provident fund but from the employer contribution of 12%, 8.33% goes towards EPS (subject to max. Rs 541) and rest added to your provident fund account. The pension on retirement is linked to the number of years in service and the average salary drawn in the year before retirement. This contribution in EPS helps in building a corpus for your pension. Although the maximum pension has been limited to Rs 3500 p.m., it is possible to get a higher pension if employer contributes on basis of employee actual pay and not mandated amount of Rs 6500 p.m. There is also provision in the law where you can receive your EPS money as a lump sum along with your PF. The benefit will be linked to your last year's average salary and number of years in service.  For receiving pension benefits one should be 58 years of age and should have completed 10 years of service without any withdrawal. But there are provisions where if you retire before 58 you will still receive the pension but a reduced amount. Lastly, your family is entitled to the pension if you do not survive the required period, provided they meet some specified conditions.

Insurance Benefit

As per EDLI (Employee Deposit Linked Insurance) scheme, in any organization where group insurance scheme is not available to the employees, the organization has to contribute .5% of monthly basic pay (capped at Maximum Rs 6500) as premium for the life insurance cover. Now, the insurance cover amount is higher of the two: 20 times the average wages of the past 12 months (up to Rs 6,500 per month), i.e. Rs 1,30,000, or the full amount in your PF account up to Rs 50,000 and 40% of the balance amount. For some this may be peanuts but people who work in small enterprises, this amount is good enough to help their family survival.

Special Occasions- EPF at help

There are special occasions in your family or some emergency arises. In case of need of funds and no recourse, EPF comes handy as it gives option to withdraw from the corpus but within a certain limit and by meeting some specified conditions.

1. Goals- Marriage, Education need for self, child or any sibling

In case you have to arrange funds for any of the above need then from your EPF corpus you can withdraw up to 50% of your contribution. Not only this, you can take this benefit three times in your life. However, do remember that for availing this facility you should be in services for at least 7 years. You will have to provide valid documents like marriage card or proof of fee payable to the organization.

2. Your Dream House

You can withdraw from your EPF account for house construction, repair or maintenance or for housing loan repayment. For all of these benefits, there are conditions specified by the organization. If you availed a housing loan and wish to make any repayment, then you can utilize up to 36 months wages from your EPF balance provided you have completed 10 years of service. Similarly, you can also withdraw up to 12 months wages (only once) if you wish to do some alteration or repairing in your existing house. For this you should have completed 5 years of service (10 years for repairing). The number of years of service reduces to five years if wish to purchase/construct a  new plot/house. The maximum you can withdraw is 36 month wages (24 month for plot) but only once. The best part here is that the house can be in name of your spouse or in joint ownership.

3. Medical Emergency

EPF gives benefit for major surgical operations in a hospital or by those suffering from TB, leprosy, paralysis, cancer, mental derangement or heart ailment. You can withdraw up to six times of your salary or the entire contribution made till date, whichever is less. The funds can be utilized for self or family (spouse, children, dependent parents) treatment.

There are other benefits available in EPF like utilizing funds for equipment purchase by physically handicapped, in cases of damage due to natural calamities etc. which one can avail in need. You also have a facility of nominating family members to receive funds after your demise and should be aware that withdrawing EPF after job change is legal only when you are jobless for at least two months. However, with all these benefits do remember that it's a retirement tool and should be utilized only when it is the last option available.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Lloyds Banking Group Climbs As Capital Concerns Ease

LONDON -- A short statement from Lloyds Banking Group  (LSE: LLOY  ) (NYSE: LYG  )  about its capital position helped its shares to rise on Wednesday morning, taking its one-month gain to nearly 35%.

The new Prudential Regulation Authority has been tasked with informing U.K. banks about their individual capital positions. This follows on from the Bank of England's statement earlier this year that the sector needed to raise an additional 25 billion pounds to absorb future losses on loans.

The amount of additional capital Lloyds Banking Group needs to raise hasn't been disclosed, but the bank today said it expected to meet the target via the cash generated from its business and further non-core disposals.

Lloyds recently tried to sell part of its branch network to the Co-op, but the latter pulled out of the process. These branches could now be floated under the TSB moniker. Lloyds is also rumoured to be considering a disposal of Scottish Widows Investment Partnership.

Today's statement is good news for shareholders, as it should mean Lloyds does not need to raise additional money from share issues and other, more exotic, capital instruments known as CoCos.

Lloyds added that it still expects its core Tier 1 ratio (the standard measure of a bank's financial strength) to be 9% by the end of 2013, and 10% by the end of 2014.

Today's news probably makes an early public sale of the government's stake in Lloyds more likely, especially if the share price, up 2% to 63 pence, continues to stay above the break-even level of about 61 pence. Taxpayers originally paid around 74 pence per share when Lloyds was bailed out, but the break-even cost is reduced because of fees and insurance premiums received since then.

That said, while banking shares used to be seen as reliable investments, many people tend to look elsewhere these days for companies that offer seemingly steadier returns. In this free report from The Motley Fool, we suggest five shares to retire on that can help bolster your portfolio.

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Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Why TJX Is Poised to Keep Popping

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, apparel and home-fashions retailer TJX (NYSE: TJX  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at TJX and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

TJX facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Framingham, Mass. (1956)

Market Cap

$34.5 billion

Industry

Apparel retail

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$25.9 billion

Management

CEO Carol Meyrowitz (since 2007)
CFO Scott Goldenberg (since 2012)

Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years)

49.2%

Cash/Debt

$2.1 billion / $774.6 million

Dividend Yield

1.2%

Competitors

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  )
Kohl's
Ross Stores 

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 90% of the 644 members who have rated TJX believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just yesterday, one of those Fools, NoblyNaive, succinctly summed up the TJX bull case for our community:

Stock is lagging sector (due for a pop). OK P/E. Good CAPS rating. Highly touted by [Jim Cramer ] on April 9, 2013.

Cramer also pointed out: 1) cool weather has put a damper on spending in the last month. 2) [J.C. Penney] has been losing market share, and the winners are the other well positioned retailers, of which TJX is one. Warmer weather, plus the implosion of [J.C. Penney] should give a bump to the sector.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, TJX may not be your top choice.

We've found another stock we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.

Natural Gas Price Down 29% in a Month

North Dakota Oil Boom Eric Gay/APOil pump jacks work behind a natural gas flare near Watford City, North Dakota. A fifth of America's natural gas production found when drilling for oil. NEW YORK -- Natural gas, the nation's most prevalent heating fuel, is getting cheaper just as winter is arriving because of mild temperatures and plentiful supplies. The price of natural gas has dropped 29 percent in a month, to $3.17 per 1,000 cubic feet on Tuesday from $4.50 in late November. That's a steep drop even for a fuel notorious for volatile price swings. The lower prices are expected to linger and could reduce electricity prices and heating bills in the coming months. Natural gas is used by half of the nation's households for heating and to generate 26 percent of the nation's electricity. Natural gas often rises as winter weather approaches, and a frigid November sent the price higher. But December warmed up, and temperatures for the rest of the winter are expected to be close to normal. Bob Brackett, an analyst at Bernstein Research, wrote in a recent note to investors that he expects natural gas to average "in the low 3's" into the spring, and a warm winter could push the price below $3. Last year at this time natural gas was near $4.50 and it reached as high as $6.15 in February after unusually cold weather gripped the eastern half of the country and stuck around for weeks. Prices in some locations averaged double or triple that amount as pipelines struggled to carry all the gas that was needed. When Will You See the Lower Price? Because of the way natural gas and electric utilities are regulated, customers won't likely see the recent drop reflected in their bills right away. Many will instead see higher prices as a result of last year's price spike. But the lower market prices could at least slow the rise in retail prices and perhaps reverse it if the low prices last. Conditions look good for low prices throughout the spring, but they could reverse later next year, analysts say. One-fifth of the nation's natural gas production is from gas found when drilling for oil, so-called "associated gas." A drop in the price of oil is forcing drillers to cut back, and that may slow the growth in production of associated gas. Also, in April of next year an Environmental Protection Agency rule governing emissions of mercury and other toxic chemicals goes into effect. That will force electric utilities to reduce their use of coal, the chief source of those emissions, and turn instead to natural gas. And later next year the first of several new liquefied natural gas export terminals are expected to start up, further increasing natural gas demand. Brackett expects natural gas prices to increase after the second quarter and average $4 per 1,000 cubic feet for the year. Tom Pugh, an analyst at Capital Economics, thinks the gas price could reach $6 by the end of 2016 as power generation and exports increase demand. That assumes normal weather, of course. Another strong blast of arctic air could bring higher prices much sooner. "A resurgence in cold weather, and the resultant jump in demand, could still lead to large price spikes during January and February," Pugh wrote in a research note Tuesday. Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. More from The Associated Press
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Monday, January 5, 2015

How to Avoid Comcast and Time Warner Cable's Newest Fee Increase

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC  ) love to find ways to inflate customers' cable and Internet bills without increasing their advertised prices.

The companies, which are seeking federal approval for a $45 billion merger, have been especially clever in adding mandatory fees and surcharges in ways that could at best be considered sneaky. While most of the charges tacked on to the basic price of cable service can't be avoided, customers do have the option of eliminating a significant broadband fee.

It is not well publicized that Comcast and Time Warner Cable customers do not have to rent a modem from their Internet service provider. Most people simply assume modem rental is a necessary evil -- the same as having to rent a cable box -- but it's not. Buying and using your own modem is not only allowed, it's relatively easy to do. 

This will save you money over time, and the savings will grow now that both Comcast and Time Warner Cable are very quietly raising modem rental prices.

What the ISPs are doing
Modem rentals have long been a profit center for ISPs. Time Warner has now raised its monthly fee from $5.99 to $8, while Comcast's charge has spiked from $8 per month to $10, according to CNN Money.

So, TWC subscribers will pay $96 a year and Comcast customers will spend $120.

That's a high price to pay when modems are easily accessible on the retail market. For example, Amazon.com sells the Motorola SB6121 for $69.99. You can spend more or less depending on the features, but buying generally pays for itself in less than a year for a device that is likely to last more than two years.

You can see why the ISPs want people to rent modems -- it's not only free cash, but in many cases, they charge you an installation fee on top of the rental charge.

The Motorola SB6121 Source: Amazon.

How you can avoid paying
Most people rent a modem because they don't know buying is an option, or the installation process seems daunting. Though neither company makes any effort to publicize it, both TWC and Comcast have Web pages that list which modems are compatible with their service.

Still, knowing what to buy and installing it yourself can seem like trouble if you are the non-techy type who considers setting the clock on the microwave an accomplishment. But TechCrunch broke down the steps for Comcast users, and it's simpler than you might think.

Step 1: Plug it in.
Step 2: Call Comcast, say "I bought my own modem," and read the company representative the serial numbers on the back of the modem. You're done.

That makes it sound a little easier than it is but not by much. If you can insert an Ethernet cable into its slot and twist on a cable connection, then you can likely do it.

It just makes sense
The ISPs want customers to believe that renting makes sense, because it removes the fear of having to pay for a replacement if something goes wrong. That, however, is the same logic that gets people to buy extended warranties for electronics -- a practice Consumer Reports pretty much universally finds to be a waste of money.

Yes, peace of mind has some value, but when was the last time your cable modem broke? This isn't a phone or another item that is exposed to being dropped or other mishaps. It's a small box that sits in the same place day after day, year after year.

Fee hikes are good for ISPs (for now)
These price increases make sense for Comcast and Time Warner Cable, because most customers don't realize they have the option to buy a modem or how simple that option really is to install. The rising fees should further bump up revenue for both companies, but every time they raise customers' bills, they risk pushing customers to seek alternatives.

Of course, in many markets, the alternatives are as poor and fee-riddled as Comcast and Time Warner, so switching is not really an option. This is a clear case in which consumers are paying more than they have to and are likely to continue to do so even as rates climb.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Texas Meatpacker Recalls Beef Products for Possible E.coli

Food and Farm Local Beef Jessica Hill/AP CHICAGO -- A Texas meat processing plant has recalled 23,100 pounds of beef trimmings products for possible contamination with E.coli bacteria, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service said late Thursday. USDA said Caviness Beef Packers in Hereford, Texas is recalling the 23,100 pounds of beef trimmings products with potential E.coli. Caviness' beef trimmings were shipped to fast food restaurants and retail distribution locations in Texas. FSIS and the company are concerned that some product may be frozen and in consumers' freezers. The product was made Aug. 14 to Aug. 20 bearing the establishment number "EST. 675" inside the USDA mark of inspection. A routine food safety check uncovered the problem. The trimmings subject to recall are lots that tested negative, but produced consecutive to the positive lots and were subsequently processed into raw ground products and distributed to retailers, the USDA said. The questionable beef trimmings were sent to establishments for further processing and will likely not bear the establishment number "EST.675" on products available for direct consumer purchase. Beef trimmings are used in the manufacturing of ground beef. The U.S. for the week ending Sept. 20 produced 465.4 million pounds of beef, based on USDA data.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Will Ford Motor Company's Surge in the World's Largest Auto Market Continue?

Ford's Fiesta remains a hot commodity overseas. Source: Ford Motor Company.

Any competitive person will tell you that one of the most frustrating things in the world is giving your opponent a head start. That's exactly what Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F  ) did in the world's largest automotive market, China. General Motors has taken a decisive sales lead in the region.

Fortunately for Ford investors, the folks at the Blue Oval have taken its late market entry in stride and have witnessed vehicle sales surge over the last two years. The questions are: Will this surge continue? And can Ford compete with GM for the title of China's best-selling foreign automaker?

What have you done for me lately?
In the fast-paced, and often short-sighted, investment world, folks constantly want to know, "What have you done for me lately?" Well, to say that Ford's sales gains have been impressive recently might even be an understatement. 


Graph by author. Data source: Ford's sales releases. 

Just last month, Ford posted year-over-year sales gains of 25% in China. Perhaps even more impressive than that is that last month's gain checked in as Ford's second-worst monthly performance in 2014. When your worst two monthly sales gains check in at 17% and 25%, business is good. 

So, with Ford's year-to-date sales improving 33% over the same time frame last year, are sales peaking or gearing up to move higher?

The road ahead
While the automotive industry can throw automakers a curve ball at any time, all indications are that Ford's sales in China will continue to move higher in the years ahead. There are two reasons for this.

First, Ford has yet to unleash its entire vehicle lineup in the region, which will easily, and incrementally, boost the automaker's sales figures over the next couple of years. The folks at the Blue Oval know what works in China, and the Fiesta and Focus remain perennial best-sellers in the country in their respective segments. Ford's Mondeo, known as the Fusion here in America, is continuing to gain traction with consumers and could rise to be the automaker's next big hit.

In addition to the Mondeo, there are wild cards such as the 2015 Mustang, which will debut soon in China. In all, Ford intends to roll out 15 new vehicles in China by the end of next year to accelerate its sales pace. Management has placed its bet and remains confident in the road ahead as Ford currently has three additional plants under construction in the region to complement the seven it already has. 

Second, in addition to Ford's organic growth, China's exploding market and growing middle class will unleash plenty of first-time buyers in the near- and mid-term. In 2013, China sold nearly 22 million vehicles, which outpaced the second-largest market, the United States, by roughly 6 million vehicles. While the United States is expected to extend its sales lead over other markets, it won't keep up with vehicle sales growth in China. Consider that by the end of the decade, vehicle sales in China are expected to reach 30 million, which would be nearly equal to the expected sales in the United States and Europe combined. 

Can Ford overtake GM in China?
All indications are that Ford's sales in China will continue moving higher, with double-digit increases in the years ahead, but can it make up for a late market entry and catch rival GM? Of course it can -- but don't count on it anytime soon. 


Graph by author. Data source: Ford and GM sales releases.

Investors can expect Ford to continue narrowing the sales gap with GM, but overtaking or even matching GM would be an extremely difficult task that will likely take closer to a decade, or longer, to achieve. Here's the kicker, though: Investors don't need Ford's sales in China to match GM's for it to be a success. Ford is aiming to quintuple its revenue generated from its Asia-Pacific region -- of which China is by far the biggest market -- by 2020, and accomplishing that will be a massive success and would deliver a large positive impact on Ford's financial performance. 

Yes, the automotive industry can throw investors and automakers a curve ball at any time, but it seems almost certain that Ford's sales in China are just getting started, and that's a great thing for Ford investors. 

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