Saturday, January 5, 2013

Con-Way Dips as Stifel Cuts to Hold; Valuation Rich Despite Rebound

Shares of trucking firm Con-way (CNW) are off 66 cents, or 1.7%, at $37.76 after Stifel Nicolaus analyst David Ross cut his rating on the stock to “Hold” from “Buy,” writing that the stock had exceeded his fair-value estimate.

Just like Longbow Research’s Lee Klaskow earlier today, Ross sees the “less than truckload,” or LTL, market for freight delivery improving throughout this year for Con-way and others, but he thinks pricing will remain under pressure because of “lingering overcapacity.” Con-way purchased a lot of freight capacity last year and will have a hard time raising rates, although fuel surcharges might help a bit.

The shares fetch 36.6 times his 2010 estimate of $1.05, and 17 times his 2011 estimate of $2.20, though those numbers are below the $1.07 and $2.22 the Street has been modeling.

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