3 Stocks Back From the Dead -- for Now

As investors, we often give up on companies that fall out of favor, particularly in the consumer good business. Dominant brands can quickly fall by the wayside as technology changes, new brands emerge, or even if they get so big they can only fall.

Three electronics companies suffered a downfall in recent years but are now slowly emerging from the stock market rubble as investors eye their possible turnarounds. Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) , Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) , and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) are all trying to make a comeback after their stocks all fell more than 50% and missteps plagued each company.

SNE Total Return Price data by YCharts.

But recent weeks and months have seen a small comeback, and for the moment they have a little momentum on their side. So, will it last?

The return of Sony... maybe
Sony was once the dominant electronics retailer in the world, selling everything from its iconic Walkman to flat-screen TVs. But Sony missed out on the electronic music revolution Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) created with the iPod, and eventually both TVs and PCs took a hit when lower-margin competitors entered the market.

Sony's sales didn't nosedive during the 2000s, but the bottom line took a huge hit over the past few years as the company searched for a path forward.

SNE Revenue Quarterly data by YCharts.

Right now, investors seem to be happy things aren't getting worse. Sony managed a small operating profit in the fiscal second quarter and the hope is that financial results will turn around over the next year. �

But the challenge for Sony is the same as it is for most fallen electronics companies. Sony needs to come out with a few killer products that consumers are dying to have. It's what Apple did to take the music business from Sony and it's what Samsung has done to take huge share in smartphones.

Sony's stock may be up 57% from its low, but the company is far from relevant again. Sony needs to make big, bold moves to get back into consumers' hearts.

Nokia fights back
I'll admit I was the one dissenting vote when fellow Fools Sean Williams, Alex Planes, and I debated Nokia back in August. Since we made an outperform call, our pick has outperformed the market by 29 points and investors who followed suit have been rewarded.�

The key driver to Nokia's surging stock price is sales of the Lumia smartphone. Earlier this month the company said it shipped 4.4 million of the devices in the fourth quarter, which was a slight uptick from a quarter earlier. A slight uptick may not sound great, but after a nosedive in earlier quarters, it's progress.��

Nokia made a risky move betting on Microsoft's�mobile operating system and investors are looking for signs one way or the other that it will pay off. As Microsoft rolls out more Windows 8 licenses and consumers become comfortable with the operating system, I think it will pay off for Nokia.

Don't expect Nokia to be overtaking Samsung or Apple in the smartphone business any time soon, but there are signs of improvement. CEO Stephen Elop says the company will "achieve underlying profitability in the fourth quarter" and if it can keep improving its smartphone offerings, investors may indeed have a big winner on their hands.

The trials and tribulations of HP
Hewlett-Packard�is a little different story. HP isn't just behind the times with products, it has shot itself in the foot with acquisitions. The $8.8 billion writedown of Autonomy tanked the stock in 2012, but since bottoming out, the stock is up 46%.

Meg Whitman has been trying to engineer a turnaround, but so far that's consisted of cleaning house from previous managers. Net losses have been incredibly high in the second half of 2012, as you can see below.

HPQ Net Income Quarterly data by YCharts.

The challenge for Whitman and team is to turn around a variety of businesses that are struggling at the same time. In the most recent earnings report, the company said revenue fell in its five largest businesses and the trends don't seem to be getting any better. �

The PC business is slowing rapidly, printing is in a long decline, and even the services business is struggling. On an adjusted basis HP is still making money, but what does the future hold?

Investors are betting the company is back from the dead for now, but the future is uncertain to say the least. HP probably has the biggest upside potential of the companies here, but it can also fall out of favor with investors quickly.

Is this one of the least-appreciated turnaround stories on the market, or is this a minor blip on its road to irrelevance? The Motley Fool's technology analyst details exactly what investors need to know about HP in our new premium research report. Just click here now to get your copy today.

Foolish bottom line
Sony, Nokia, and HP have all been through tough times but investors have been betting on a turnaround recently. It's a risky bet but the rewards for those who get it right could be tremendous.�

Bank of Italy Goes on the Defensive

MILAN�Italy's banking regulator on Tuesday said it had for years tightly supervised Italian lender Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, which says it is sitting on potentially hundreds of million euros in losses due to risky financial transactions.

The recent disclosure of the potential losses is causing upheaval in Italian financial and political circles.

The Bank of Italy's supervision of MPS has been "continuous and of growing intensity," the central bank said in a document outlining the chronology of its oversight of MPS since 2008.

Much of the financial trouble at MPS, which is Italy's No. 3 lender by assets, dates to its purchase of smaller rival Antonveneta from Spain's Banco Santander SA for �9 billion ($12.1 billion) in 2008. Santander had bought Antonveneta months earlier for �6.6 billion.

Reuters

The Italian government has recently approved �3.9 billion in aid for lender Monte dei Paschi.

The acquisition by MPS came just before the 2008 financial crisis and plunge in financial markets.

MPS subsequently engaged in a number of so-called structured-finance deals�a broad category that can include a range of complex financial bets�in 2008 and 2009 that the bank and regulators say burdened it with risk. The details and potential losses of those structured-finance deals are only starting to emerge now.

The government recently approved a �3.9 billion aid loan to MPS. The money is expected to be disbursed to the 540-year-old bank by the end of February.

According to the Bank of Italy document, the central bank began to question MPS's capital solidity when it first had to evaluate whether to give its green light to the Antonveneta acquisition in 2008.

From the second half of 2009 into 2010, the central bank intensified its scrutiny of MPS's liquidity, including by sending inspectors to its headquarters and offices, according to the document.

"The situation of the bank was considered to be unclear and potentially critical," the document says, referring to the way the complex transactions were affecting the bank in 2010.

An MPS spokesman declined to comment on the chronology of events released by the central bank.

MPS Chief Executive Fabrizio Viola, who became CEO early last year, said on Monday said that the bank was reviewing its past transactions and that the amount of losses, which were likely to be more than �200 million, would be fully disclosed in February. He also said that one derivative transaction, which was called Alexandria, had been incorrectly represented in the bank's accounts.

MPS's new managers are poring through documents in an effort to understand and explain the extent of the bank's financial woes. The central bank's summary highlights, more clearly than has been laid out thus far, how critical MPS's situation became in the years up to the summer of 2011.

At that time, even as the bank was digesting the Antonveneta purchase, the liquidity situation of MPS worsened due to tensions in sovereign-debt markets, the central-bank document says. The value of the large government-bond portfolio held by the bank decreased, hurting its capital position, the document says.

The European Banking Authority conducted stress tests on a high number of European banks and found that MPS had a shortfall of regulatory capital of �3.3 billion as of the end of September 2011.

From that point until June last year, Monte dei Paschi put together a restructuring plan aiming at bringing the bank back into the black by 2015.

Write to Giovanni Legorano at giovanni.legorano@dowjones.com

U.S. GDP Contraction Sends Gold Surging

Gold surged sharply higher Wednesday -- climbing beyond $1,680 per ounce with a rise of more than $16 per ounce -- while the U.S. dollar weakened to a 14-month low against the euro.

Gold bullion investment vehicle SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) notched a 1% advance intraday, while silver bullion proxy iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) gained 2.4%. Related mining stocks were largely excluded from the rally, as the�Market Vectors Gold Miners Index ETF (NYSEMKT: GDX  ) hovered near the unchanged mark in early afternoon trading.

Mark Chandler, head of global currency strategy for�Brown Brothers Harriman, was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as pointing to more evidence today "that a tightening of euro-area financial conditions is under way." The European Central Bank committed only $5 billion to its latest refinancing operation, according to the Journal.�

In the United States, meanwhile, news of a 0.1% contraction in U.S. GDP during the fourth quarter of 2012 prompted currency traders to anticipate reduced consideration within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for an early cessation of the Federal Reserve's asset-purchase program. Earlier this month, minutes released from the FOMC's December meeting revealed that several members "thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet."

With respect to the FOMC policy statement due for release Wednesday afternoon, DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak foresees a "stronger dovish tone" within the statement as concerns over lackluster domestic growth trump dissenting concerns over the risks from sustained loose monetary policy.

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Research In Motion Is No More

Today is the day. Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM  ) has at long last launched its newest BlackBerry 10 platform, which has been in development for years and seen numerous delays along the way. In a symbolic move to mark the company's fresh start with BB10, it has decided to change its name simply to BlackBerry to unify its branding.

That also comes with changing its ticker symbol from "RIMM" on the Nasdaq to "BBRY." On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the company will trade under the symbol "BB." These changes will be effective Feb. 4. Research In Motion is officially no more. Say hello to BlackBerry.

RIM unveils a new iPhone
At the launch event in New York, CEO Thorsten Heins unveiled two new devices, the Z10 and Q10. The Z10 takes obvious design cues from Apple's iPhone, except that it boasts a larger 4.2-inch display. It's a touchscreen device that carries internal specs competitive with rival devices, such as an 8-megapixel primary camera and a 1.5 GHz dual-core processor of unknown origin.

Qualcomm has been rumored to have scored the spot with its Snapdragon S4 Pro chips, but RIM has not confirmed that.

The Q10 looks similar to BlackBerry devices of the past, sporting a physical keyboard that has long been one of RIM's target market niches. Devoted physical keyboard users have always been a focus for RIM, and the company hasn't lost sight of that user base, which tends to be business users.

Who needs the U.S. market? Oh yeah, we do.
RIM first detailed what would become BlackBerry 10 back in Q1 2011. That's a whole two years that the company has been working on building the platform from its 2010 acquisition of QNX Software. BlackBerry loyalists have been anxiously awaiting this day for quite a long time, and the bad news is that those in the U.S. will still have to wait even longer.

The Z10 is launching later this week in RIM's home turf of Canada as well as the U.K. Those are two of RIM's core markets, but the critical U.S. market remains larger than both of those combined, even given RIM's plunging domestic market share. Kantar Worldpanel ComTech's most recent figures showed RIM's share sliding to just 1.1% in December.

Platform	12 Weeks Ending Dec. 25, 2011	12 Weeks Ending Dec. 23, 2012
iOS	44.9%	51.2%
Android	44.8%	44.2%
RIM	6.1%	1.1%
Windows	2.2%	2.6%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Comtech.

Google Android stayed relatively flat, while Apple gained and now comprises over half of the market. Microsoft has made some gains with Windows Phone and has made its intentions clear that it wants to cement itself as the No. 3 platform.

Segment	Revenue (MRQ)	Percentage of Total Revenue (MRQ)
Canada	$127 million	4.7%
United States	$520 million	19.1%
United Kingdom	$302 million	11.1%

Source: RIM. MRQ = most recent quarter.

Last quarter, 19.1% of RIM's revenue was still being generated in the U.S., showing how important that geographical segment still is to its results despite its market share losses.

What's another couple months after you've already waited years?
U.S. consumers will have to wait until mid-March for the Z10 to land stateside. Heins said that the delay was due to carrier testing procedures that are taking longer than expected. The Q10 won't be available in the U.S. until April, so U.S. consumers will have to wait two to three months before they can get their hands on any BB10 device.

That revelation put significant pressure on the stock; shares promptly dropped upon that news and are currently down 8%.

Good, but not better
Upon the unveiling, a slew of tech sites have released their reviews, and the general consensus is that while BB10 is a solid mobile platform that's competitive in many ways with iOS, Android, and Windows Phone, it's not better and doesn't provide any compelling reason for users to switch from other platforms.

Market researcher Ovum believes the platform will garner some short-term interest from existing users, but still faces daunting challenges in the long term. RIM investors have gotten a little ahead of themselves in recent months, with shares more than doubling. Maybe some profit-taking is in order.

The mobile revolution is still in its infancy, but with so many different companies it can be daunting to know how to profit in the space. Fortunately, The Motley Fool has just released a free report on mobile named "The Next Trillion-Dollar Revolution" that tells you how. Inside the report, we not only describe why this seismic shift will dwarf any other technology revolution seen before it, but we also name the company at the forefront of the trend. Hundreds of thousands have requested access to previous reports, and you can access this new report today by clicking here -- it's free.

Increased Regulation: ‘Just Deal With It’

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• Proxy Voting RIAs are not required to vote proxies on behalf of their clients. However, when an RIA does assume responsibility for voting proxies, the firm�s policies and procedures should help to ensure that votes are cast in the best interest of clients.

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“I don’t have a pick, since the Dolphins aren’t in it.”

Football is something of a passion for Marshall Leeds, so the Super Bowl seemed a good place to start the interview.

But as usual, the gregarious group chairman and CEO of Summit Financial Services was ready to surprise. Jumping on his smartphone, he began looking for legendary Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula’s pick as a proxy, as Shula just happens to be Summit’s company spokesman.

“I was just celebrating the 40th anniversary of the 1972 undefeated Miami Dolphins with Shula, one other person and the team,” Leeds (right) nonchalantly told AdvisorOne on Tuesday at FSI’s OneVoice Conference in San Diego.

“Don Shula hasn’t given his pick yet,” he added after a quick search.

Turning to the independent broker-dealer industry and the issues it faces, Leeds noted that it’s his 30th year in the business.

“You know, I’m very direct,” he stated, somewhat obviously. “When I started, everyone gave 90% payouts and nothing up front. That was a great model, but now we’ve taken a great model and made it lopsided.”

He added that “we make less and advisors expect more. We created margin compression. It only results in less service for advisors, so it’s a lesson in being careful what you wish for.”

As a solution, “everyone is coming up with their own proprietary products to get those margins back. You can’t tell me your money managers will do better than the best money managers in the world.”

As for regulation, Leeds was also direct.  

“It’s a simple issue for me. Like the Obama tax, it’s here to stay, just deal with it. It’s a cost of doing business.”

When meeting with other CEOs at the conference, he said, he asked them what their No. 1 issue was for 2013. 

“The answer is always to drive recruiting,” he said. “The No. 1 issue should be retention if an advisor leaves a firm; 99% of the time it’s the firm’s fault, shame on you. If you bring a guy in, he’ll do 70% of his business in the first year. You’re already in the whole for those transition costs. It will take two years to replace that production.”

He noted the firm has 320 advisors, and they average more than $300,000 in GDC. 

“We are actually under in the average age of our advisors,” Leeds concluded. “The industry average age is 52, but our average age is 49. We mainly a recruiting are advisors from other independent broker dealers, which is a perfect example of them not getting what they were promised.”

Cisco: The Umi Is Simply Too Expensive To Drive Much Demand

I said it yesterday, and now the Street is saying it: Cisco (CSCO) has got to be kidding if they think people are going to line up to buy their Umi home video conferencing system with a price tag of $599 – plus $24.99 for monthly service. It is simply crazy expensive at a time when you can buy a cheap Webcam and video chat over the Internet via Skype, Google Talk or other service for almost zero additional equipment cost and no additional service fee.

Here are a few comments from the Street on the new offering.

• Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley: “We believe Cisco�s new Umi home telepresence� solution, announced last night, is a solution in search of a problem and believe the odds are small it becomes a success,” he writes. “History suggests that consumer video conferencing is NOT a killer app � AT&T marketed its Picturephone and VideoPhone devices for several years off and on beginning at the 1964 World�s Fair with little success. While Cisco has done a good job of bringing consumer technologies into the enterprise � such as blogging, video chats, instant messenger, etc – we�re not convinced it works the other way around, to take enterprise products like [telepresence]� to the consumer.” He adds that the system is “much too expensive.”
• Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.: “While the quality of the experience is much more immersive and life-like compared to free services like Skype with a webcam, we believe many consumers may hesitate at its premium price point of $599 for the hardware and monthly service fee of $24.95 which includes unlimited umi calls, video messaging, and video storage,” he writes. “We believe there is a market for premium video conferencing, but it will likely be a high-end niche. With lower price points and the elimination or at least lowering of its monthly service fee, we see great potential to reach the broader mainstream market where many would consider using this over a voice-only phone call.”
• Mark Sue, RBC Capital: “Cisco has a history of mispricing consumer products. For what it does $599 might not be too high, yet a recurring monthly fee of $24.99 for the dedicated video broadband might take some getting used to considering many video conferencing solutions (though lower quality) is free.”
• Rod Hall, J.P. Morgan: “While the concept is interesting, we don�t understand what we believe to be the hefty pricing of the Umi offering in these tough economic times,” he writes. “We note that 1080p video cameras are now readily available for around $100, and a brand new Xbox 360 that has some degree of video conferencing capability and 250GB of local storage sells for $299. Moreover, we�re struggling with the rationale for an additional service fee beyond the cost of internet connectivity. $24.99/month seems intuitively high in our opinion for cloud based storage and messaging features though we don�t doubt that high quality video storage would be expensive to provide. While we like the concept of the product, we believe the pricing will have to change significantly to spur broad adoption in a world where Skype video conferencing is free.”

CSCO is up 4 cents, to $22.34.

3 Stocks Back From the Dead -- for Now

As investors, we often give up on companies that fall out of favor, particularly in the consumer good business. Dominant brands can quickly fall by the wayside as technology changes, new brands emerge, or even if they get so big they can only fall.

Three electronics companies suffered a downfall in recent years but are now slowly emerging from the stock market rubble as investors eye their possible turnarounds. Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) , Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) , and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) are all trying to make a comeback after their stocks all fell more than 50% and missteps plagued each company.

SNE Total Return Price data by YCharts.

But recent weeks and months have seen a small comeback, and for the moment they have a little momentum on their side. So, will it last?

The return of Sony... maybe
Sony was once the dominant electronics retailer in the world, selling everything from its iconic Walkman to flat-screen TVs. But Sony missed out on the electronic music revolution Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) created with the iPod, and eventually both TVs and PCs took a hit when lower-margin competitors entered the market.

Sony's sales didn't nosedive during the 2000s, but the bottom line took a huge hit over the past few years as the company searched for a path forward.

SNE Revenue Quarterly data by YCharts.

Right now, investors seem to be happy things aren't getting worse. Sony managed a small operating profit in the fiscal second quarter and the hope is that financial results will turn around over the next year. �

But the challenge for Sony is the same as it is for most fallen electronics companies. Sony needs to come out with a few killer products that consumers are dying to have. It's what Apple did to take the music business from Sony and it's what Samsung has done to take huge share in smartphones.

Sony's stock may be up 57% from its low, but the company is far from relevant again. Sony needs to make big, bold moves to get back into consumers' hearts.

Nokia fights back
I'll admit I was the one dissenting vote when fellow Fools Sean Williams, Alex Planes, and I debated Nokia back in August. Since we made an outperform call, our pick has outperformed the market by 29 points and investors who followed suit have been rewarded.�

The key driver to Nokia's surging stock price is sales of the Lumia smartphone. Earlier this month the company said it shipped 4.4 million of the devices in the fourth quarter, which was a slight uptick from a quarter earlier. A slight uptick may not sound great, but after a nosedive in earlier quarters, it's progress.��

Nokia made a risky move betting on Microsoft's�mobile operating system and investors are looking for signs one way or the other that it will pay off. As Microsoft rolls out more Windows 8 licenses and consumers become comfortable with the operating system, I think it will pay off for Nokia.

Don't expect Nokia to be overtaking Samsung or Apple in the smartphone business any time soon, but there are signs of improvement. CEO Stephen Elop says the company will "achieve underlying profitability in the fourth quarter" and if it can keep improving its smartphone offerings, investors may indeed have a big winner on their hands.

The trials and tribulations of HP
Hewlett-Packard�is a little different story. HP isn't just behind the times with products, it has shot itself in the foot with acquisitions. The $8.8 billion writedown of Autonomy tanked the stock in 2012, but since bottoming out, the stock is up 46%.

Meg Whitman has been trying to engineer a turnaround, but so far that's consisted of cleaning house from previous managers. Net losses have been incredibly high in the second half of 2012, as you can see below.

HPQ Net Income Quarterly data by YCharts.

The challenge for Whitman and team is to turn around a variety of businesses that are struggling at the same time. In the most recent earnings report, the company said revenue fell in its five largest businesses and the trends don't seem to be getting any better. �

The PC business is slowing rapidly, printing is in a long decline, and even the services business is struggling. On an adjusted basis HP is still making money, but what does the future hold?

Investors are betting the company is back from the dead for now, but the future is uncertain to say the least. HP probably has the biggest upside potential of the companies here, but it can also fall out of favor with investors quickly.

Is this one of the least-appreciated turnaround stories on the market, or is this a minor blip on its road to irrelevance? The Motley Fool's technology analyst details exactly what investors need to know about HP in our new premium research report. Just click here now to get your copy today.

Foolish bottom line
Sony, Nokia, and HP have all been through tough times but investors have been betting on a turnaround recently. It's a risky bet but the rewards for those who get it right could be tremendous.�

Research In Motion Launches New BlackBerry 10 Platform

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM  ) launched its new BlackBerry 10 mobile operating system platform today at a special event in New York. The company unveiled two new devices running the new OS, the Z10 and Q10. The Z10 features an all-touch interface while the Q10 combines touch with a physical keyboard.

The company's BlackBerry World app store now features 70,000 apps for BlackBerry 10, and now features other types of content like music and movies. The U.K. and Canada will be the first two countries to launch the Z10 within the next week, while the U.S. launch is expected to be in March.

RIM said the Q10 will launch on global carriers in April. The company also announced today that it is changing its name to BlackBerry.

�

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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners to Buy Copano Energy in $5 Billion Deal

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP  ) has agreed to purchase 100% of Copano Energy (NASDAQ: CPNO  ) .

The deal, if approved by regulators and Copano shareholders, would result in Copano shareholders receiving 0.4563 shares of Kinder Morgan for each share of Copano stock. At the time of the announcement, the transaction is valued at $5 billion, a 23.5% premium to Copano Energy's closing price on Jan. 29.

Copano owns or operates approximately 6,900 miles of pipelines and nine processing plants, primarily located in Wyoming, Texas, and Oklahoma. Copano's assets will be combined with Kinder Morgan's interest or ownership in approximately 46,000 miles of pipelines and 180 terminals.

According to Kinder Morgan CEO Richard Kinder, the transaction will allow his company to "significantly expand our midstream services footprint." The transaction is expected to be only modestly accretive to Kinder Morgan in 2013, and add approximately $0.10 per unit for at least the next five years.

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Make Money in this Fast-Growing Region

Exchange-traded funds offer a convenient way to invest in sectors or niches that interest you. If you'd like to add some Latin American stocks to your portfolio, the SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America ETF (NYSEMKT: GML  ) could save you a lot of trouble, with its substantial holdings in nations such as Brazil and Mexico. Instead of trying to figure out which companies will perform best, you can use this ETF to invest in lots of them simultaneously.

The basics
ETFs often sport lower expense ratios than their mutual fund cousins. The SPDR ETF's expense ratio -- its annual fee -- is 0.59%, and it recently yielded 1.9%. The fund is fairly small, too, so if you're thinking of buying, beware of possibly large spreads between its bid and ask prices. Consider using a limit order if you want to buy in.

This ETF lagged its benchmark over the past three years, but handily topped it over the past five. As with most investments, of course, we can't expect outstanding performances in every quarter or year. Investors with conviction need to wait for their holdings to deliver.

With a low turnover rate of 7%, this fund isn't frantically and frequently rejiggering its holdings, as many funds do.

Why Latin America?
Adding any companies from outside the U.S. can strengthen a portfolio through geographic diversification. (However, it's worth noting that many American giants generate much, if not most, of their income from global operations.) Latin America, meanwhile, also offers the benefit of economies such as Brazil's that have been developing, and growing at a faster clip than ours.

More than a handful of Latin American companies had strong performances over the past year. Mexican cement giant Cemex (NYSE: CX  ) surged 72%, for example, partly on strong growth selling in the U.S. The company is expected by some to return to profitability next year, thanks in part to a recovering housing market. It has recently been both upgraded and downgraded by Wall Street, and has refinanced its debt, as well.

America Movil (NYSE: AMX  ) ,,belonging to Carlos Slim, who has overtaken Warren Buffett and Bill Gates as the world's richest man, advanced 8%. The company has become a telecom giant, taking on significant debt as it buys more towers�and adds licenses �and other operations (not only in Latin America but also Europe), as well as growing organically. Ironically, Slim has been rebuffed recently when trying to expand his TV offerings in Mexico. In the U.S., its pay-as-you-go TracFone service is growing, too, with more than 21 million subscribers and a recent deal to offer iPhones.

Other companies didn't do as well last year, but could see their fortunes change in the coming years. Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) , Brazil's top oil company, is down some 36% over the year, facing competition from the likes of Colombia's Ecopetrol, another holding of this ETF. It's raising its refinery prices, and recently announced the commercial viability�of two sizable oil fields. It carries substantial debt and is aiming to cut costs, as its operating costs are above average.

Brazil-based Vale� (NYSE: VALE  ) , the world's largest iron-ore concern, shed 16% and recently yielded a solid 3.2%. It's poised to profit from growth in China, and has been enjoying double-digit growth rates for revenue and earnings over the past few years. It expects a strengthening iron ore market in 2013.

The big picture
A well-chosen ETF can grant you instant diversification across any industry or group of companies -- and make investing in and profiting from it that much easier.

If you're interested in high-yielding stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special free report outlining nine top dependable dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your copy today at no cost. Just click here to discover the winners we've picked.

Are You Expecting This from Carbonite?

Carbonite (Nasdaq: CARB  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 4. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Carbonite's revenues will expand 33.8% and EPS will remain in the red.

The average estimate for revenue is $23.2 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.06.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Carbonite booked revenue of $21.6 million. GAAP reported sales were 35% higher than the prior-year quarter's $15.9 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at -$0.07. GAAP EPS were -$0.13 for Q3 versus -$0.47 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 66.6%, 500 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -15.6%, 3,110 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -15.6%, 3,100 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $83.6 million. The average EPS estimate is -$0.51.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a one-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 17 members out of 51 rating the stock outperform, and 34 members rating it underperform. Among 30 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), seven give Carbonite a green thumbs-up, and 23 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Carbonite is outperform, with an average price target of $15.20.

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Stock futures steady before Boeing, ADP, Fed call

MADRID (MarketWatch) � U.S. stock market futures stuck to the flat line on Wednesday ahead of a private-sector payroll survey and growth data, along with the results of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, in which the central bank is expected to stay its course.

Earnings from major companies like blue-chip Boeing Co. are also on offer.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJH3 �rose 6 points to 13,914, while those for the Standard & Poor�s 500 index SPH3 �rose 0.4 point to 1,505.50.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NDH3 rose 2.25 points to 2,745.�

Click to Play Dow eyes 5-year high

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs toward a five-year high, and Microsoft's role in a private deal is at issue in Dell talks to go private. Alexandra Scaggs breaks down the day in markets on The News Hub. Photo: AP

At 8:15 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, ADP�s private-sector-payroll data report for January is expected to show jobs growth of 173,000, down from 215,000 in December. The number is important because it will likely give a clue about the all-important non-farm-payroll data that come out Friday. Read: What to watch on U.S. economy on Wednesday

On the heels of the ADP data, the Commerce Department will release its fourth-quarter gross- domestic-product estimate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the economy grew around 1% in the last three months of 2012, a drop from a 3.1% gain in the third quarter.

But beyond that headline number, the data could show underlying strength, such as higher consumer spending and business investment.

Fed policy call

Last up, the Fed will make its policy announcement at 2:15 p.m. Eastern. The central bank is expected to press ahead with bond buying at a pace of $85 billion a month, with no signs of stopping until it sees signs of a broad-based economic expansion. Read: Fed to press ahead with bond buying

U.S. stocks largely advanced in the prior session, with oil prices hitting four-month highs and boosting stocks in the sector, which offset some disappointment from technology. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �rose 72.49 points, or 0.5%, to 13,954.42.

Getty Images Enlarge Image The 7-inch (17.7cm) tablet Kindle Fire HD Family. The company reported results on Tuesday that sent shares soaring in after-hour�s trading.

The S&P 500 index SPX �gained 7.66 points, or 0.5%, to 1,507.84, shaking off a lower close the prior day that snapped an eight-session winning run. Read: Pfizer leads blue-chip stocks higher

On the corporate front, Boeing BA �is forecast to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share.

Among others, Hess Corp. HES �is expected to post earnings of $1.20 a share for the fourth quarter.

After the closing bell, Facebook Inc. FB �and Qualcomm Inc. QCOM �will report.

Amazon.com Inc. AMZN �shares will be squarely in the center of investor radar screens on Wednesday. The online retailer�s shares bounced after it late on Tuesday reported weaker-than-expected fourth- quarter sales but strong operating profit. Read: Amazon gets boost on profitability surprise

In other markets, the euro EURUSD �jumped above $1.35 against the dollar for the first time in 13 months. Read: Euro above $1.35 for first time in 13 months

Also check out: Matthew Lynn: The real euro crisis is just starting

Oil prices edged up, shaking off some losses related to weekly supply data from the American Petroleum Institute. The report showed crude-oil supplies rose more than expected.

March crude CLH3 �rallied 1.2% to $97.57 a barrel on Tuesday as the market got rattled by unrest in the Middle East and an East Coast refinery closure. Read: Oil recovers from inventory-report weakness

S&P hits 1500 target; Ready for 1600?

With the move through 1484 on the E-mini futures, we directed our sights this past week to our "blue box" target of 1491-1497, and slightly exceeded it. So, as everyone keeps asking in our trading room, "Is this the top?"

No, it is not likely the top, but we are clearly going to be making a top. And once I hit a "blue box" target zone, I always suggest tightening stops, taking profits, and/or tailoring your risk positions.

So, now is a very good time for us to go through our Fibonacci Pinball once again, to maintain our perspective on expectations within the market. When you review this methodology, please remember that it is based upon probabilities, as these specific movements through Fibonacci extensions happen much more often than not, but they are not absolutes. I will be discussing the reasons behind how and why Fibonacci Pinball works so well in the equity markets at the upcoming Traders Expo in New York, so I hope to see you all there.

There are no such things as "absolutes" in a non-linear market, and it is only those who maintain a very rigid view of markets that set themselves up for failure. They are the ones who look at what the market is doing, and say that it just does not make "sense," so it clearly must be "manipulated." Whether they blame the Fed, or the "crooked banks," or whomever they deem at fault at the time, it really does not matter.

But markets do not move based upon sense or logic. So, always be mindful when listening to these supposed "experts" when they complain about the market (usually because they missed the rally or decline at issue), as they need someone to blame other than their own limited views of the market. This is why listening to anyone who is a "perma-anything" will never help you discern what the market is doing at any given time. Again, since markets are non-linear, you always need to take a non-linear perspective regarding their movements, and always maintain an open mind.

As for our Fibonacci Pinball, as you can see from the daily chart we linked to below, when we are in the heart of a wave iii of 3, our standard targets are either the 1.00 extension, or the 1.236 extension. This week, the market has hit our 1.00 extension target. So, the question now is if the market wants to push through the 1.00 extension on its way to the 1.236 extension before we see a correction. But make no mistake about it, a correction can clearly begin from the region we are in right now.

So, if the market begins the correction from the 1.00 extension, then the wave iv of 3 pullback most often targets the .618 extension, which in the cash market is in the 1460 region. However, in very strongly trending markets, the market may not drop below the .764 extension, which is within the 1475-1480 region in the cash market.

The way we know at which level we need to go long is by identifying the confluence level between one of those regions, along with where the a-wave of wave iv would have a standard Fibonacci relationship with the c-wave of wave iv. So, until the correction begins, we are not able to identify which of the two targets will most likely be the support for wave iv.

However, if the market were to push its way up to the 1.236 extension next week , which is represented by 1520 ESH3 �region in the futures and the 1527 region in the cash index, then it becomes highly unlikely that the market will see its way below the .764 extension for the wave iv pullback.

Either of these pullbacks set the stage for the next phase of the rally towards the 1.382 extension or the 1.618 extension, which means, after the wave iv of 3 pullback, we are headed up next to the 1550 region in the S&P 500. Yet, on the next pullback, if the market fails to maintain support over the .618 extension, this opens the door again to the yellow count represented on the 60-minute ES chart, which has become less likely (but still within the realm of possibility) with this move up this past week.

So, for now, while there may still be some room left on the upside, the greater risk is to the downside, as we are now dealing with a limited move up remaining. So, for those who were not able to join in the "fun" of the last rally, do not fret. Another bus will soon be arriving, as you can board on the next pullback for the run to the 1550 region before the next larger pullback takes hold.

See charts illustrating wave counts on the Emini S&P 500 and INX.

Caterpillar Earnings Keep the Dow From Tumbling -- for Now

After eight straight days in the black, stock markets are tipping into the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) down just two points and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) down 0.12% as of 3:20 p.m. EST. Economic news was mixed, and earnings failed to lift the rest of the market.

The Department of Commerce said durable-goods orders rose 4.6% in December, handily beating expectations. Orders for big-ticket aircraft boosted the numbers, and if we exclude those, orders still rose 1.3% -- not terrible, but not exactly bullish. Pending home sales fell 4.3% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors -- another mixed signal from housing. The housing market has been in a strong recovery for more than a year, but recent data suggests a slowdown may be taking hold.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) is leading the Dow today, climbing 1.8% after reporting earnings. The earnings report showed a 7% drop in machinery and engine sales -- the company's biggest market -- and a 55% drop in profit following a large writedown. But the market was expecting even worse results, and it shrugged off weak guidance and focused on an earnings beat, driving the stock higher.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) is an other big mover on the Dow today, dropping 1.6%. The company signed a deal to supply fasteners to a Chinese aircraft-maker, but this isn't a huge driver of earnings for the company. Alcoa has made some big moves recently, and Caterpillar's tepid comments are likely what investors are worried about today.

Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) has fallen 1.2% today after U.S. and Japanese regulators concluded an investigation into the 787 Dreamliner's batteries with no significant findings. The investigation will continue, with control circuits being the next area of focus. This has to be a little unnerving for investors, because there aren't any clues regarding the many issues with Boeing's new flagship aircraft.

For�Boeing, which operates as a major player in a multitrillion-dollar market, the opportunity is massive. However, the company's execution problems and emerging competitors have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. In this�premium research report, two of The Fool's best industrial-sector minds have collaborated to provide investors with the must-know info on Boeing. They'll update the report as key news hits, so be sure to claim a copy today by�clicking here now.

RPT-FOREX-Euro reaches one-month high on Greek vote results – Reuters

Trading Point

RPT-FOREX-Euro reaches one-month high on Greek vote results Reuters Euro makes gains on dollar and yen on vote relief* Greek results suggest pro-euro parties holding slimmajority* Risk assets looking bid, with Aussie lifting to … RPT-FOREX-Euro briefly jumps broadly after Greek vote resultsReuters UK Forex: EUR/USD gaps higher on Greek voteNASDAQ Forex – EUR/USD firms on Greece elections resultsForex Pros Trading Point -Zawya (registration) all 2,704 news articles »

{forex} – Forex News

Foolish Preview: Vertex Earnings

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Fed Likely to Stick to Low-Rate Message This Week

WASHINGTON (AP) -- When the Federal Reserve meets this week, it's likely to affirm a message it intends to help lift the economy: that consumers and businesses will be able to borrow cheaply well into the future -- even after unemployment has dropped sharply.

Last month, the Fed signaled for the first time that it will tie its policies to specific economic barometers. It said that as long as the inflation outlook is mild, it could keep short-term rates near zero until unemployment dips below 6.5 percent from the current 7.8 percent.

That could take until the end of 2015, the Fed predicted last month.

The Fed's guidance was designed to give consumers, companies and investors a clearer sense of when super-low borrowing costs might start to rise. Though some key sectors of the economy are improving, analysts think the Fed still feels more time is needed for low rates to spur borrowing, spending, and economic growth.

One reason is that many Americans remain anxious about the budget impasse in Washington.

"The Fed is dealing with a lot of uncertainty right now, with all the decisions still to be made on federal budget policy," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, who expects the Fed to make no changes in its support programs when its two-day policy meeting ends Wednesday.

At its December meeting, the Fed said it would keep spending $85 billion a month on bond purchases to keep long-term borrowing costs down. It will continue its bond purchases until the job market improved "substantially."

When it buys bonds, the Fed increases its investment portfolio and pumps more money into the financial system -- something critics say could eventually ignite inflation or create dangerous bubbles in assets like real estate or stocks.

On Friday, when the government will release its jobs report for January, unemployment is expected to remain 7.8 percent. That still-high rate, three and a half years after the Great Recession officially ended, helps explain why the Fed has kept its key short-term rate at a record low near zero since December 2008, just after the financial crisis erupted.

In a speech in Ann Arbor, Mich., this month, Chairman Ben Bernanke said he thought too little progress had been made in reducing unemployment and signaled that the Fed's aggressive support programs should continue.

"There is still quite a ways to go," Bernanke said of the unemployment crisis. "There are too many people whose skills and talents are being wasted."

Still, some private economists think the Fed will decide to suspend its bond purchases in the second half of this year. They note that the minutes of the Fed's December meeting revealed a split: Some of the 12 voting members thought the bond purchases would be needed through 2013. Others felt the purchases should be slowed or stopped altogether before year's end.

On one point, economists agree: Once the Fed does decide to scale back its stimulative policies, it will signal its intent well before it actually does so. Policymakers will want to blunt the shocks that could reverberate through financial markets, which have been heavily influenced by the loose-credit policies the Fed has engineered for more than four years.

Interest rates have sunk to record lows. And stock prices have risen as many investors have shifted money into the stock market in search of better returns.

"Nothing will change at this meeting, but as time goes on, I think the Fed will begin laying the groundwork for changes," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University.

Once the Fed does tighten its interest rate policy, it will inevitably jolt the markets, however much it tries to ease the impact, predicted David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Economic Advisors.

"The second the Fed gives a hint that they are in any way being less accommodative, we will see interest rates shoot higher and stock prices fall," Jones said.

EU Considers Stronger Bailout Fund; ECB Doesn’t Raise Rates

European Union (EU) leaders on Friday will discuss strengthening the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). France and Germany are also expected to present attendees with joint proposals to impose financial commitments within euro zone nations in exchange for Germany’s support on the matter.

The meeting follows a Thursday announcement by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), that euro zone interest rates would not increase; the news had sent the euro tumbling.

According to Reuters, investors had expected, after the ECB’s previously tough talk on inflation worries, that it would act sooner rather than later to lift rates. However, Trichet said that inflation expectations were “firmly anchored” and rates would not rise any time in the near future.

The summit meeting of EU leaders will see which measures have been incorporated into the “comprehensive package” long insisted upon by Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. Germany has previously voiced its opposition to increasing the amount of the 440-billion-euro ($599.4 billion) bailout fund, insisting that other euro zone nations need to adopt stricter measures for debt control, among other things.

Merkel told reporters at her arrival for the meeting, “We will talk about how to prepare decisions that are still necessary, in particular with regard to the permanent crisis mechanism which is to be agreed by March.”

A source in French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s office was cited as saying that both Paris and Berlin intended that the 17 nations within the euro zone should make commitments on increasing the competitiveness of their economies; these measures would be reviewed at annual summits.

The unnamed source said, “We are at a key moment; markets are turning, doubts about the solidity of the euro and the euro zone are dissipating. This is the moment to take a great step forward.”

The official added that the package to be presented would include both Germany’s call for stricter financial discipline, with sanctions against nations that fail to comply, and France’s desire for euro zone summits on a regular basis for the building of a "European economic government" and coordination of policies to stimulate growth.

This "competitiveness pact" proposal would also include nations’ commitments to incorporate deficit curbs within their constitutions, increase the flexibility of both wages and labor markets, and tie pension systems to individual nations’ demographies.

Yahoo needs to be bolder, analyst says

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Yahoo Inc. is not about to regain its once-dominant position as an Internet powerhouse, but Monday�s report points to a Web portal capable of steady, if not spectacular, growth.

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�
Here's the one other story that� you can't afford to miss today
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That�s great news for the new chief executive, Marissa Mayer, who has scored back-to-back beats after two quarters of solid results, though one analyst argues that it�s time for Yahoo YHOO �to show more initiative.

The lingering doubts were underscored by Yahoo�s stock decline Tuesday, as shares slipped 3% to close at $19.70, despite that company�s fourth-quarter financials beating estimates late Monday.

Yahoo, in fact, put out a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook for 2013, but some analysts appeared to accept the company�s explanation that it faces headwinds in the coming year, including the closure of its Korean operations.

�There are a lot of reasonable explanations here,� RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney wrote.

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Kelli Grant reviews the latest and greatest high-tech home amenities from the Consumer Electronics Show. (Photo: Whirlpool)

Still, he echoed the sentiment of most analysts, saying: �Of course, the �Yahoo turnaround story� wasn�t going to be proven in one quarter. If it occurs, we envision a year or longer transition. � We believe new CEO Marissa Mayer is taking the right approach in focusing on product innovation while also returning cash to shareholders � a rare combination in this sector.�

Yahoo said the company bought back $1.5 billion worth of shares in the fourth quarter. �This marks significant progress toward the $3 billion of additional capital return that we announced in September,� Mayer commented on a call with analysts.

She also pointed out that Yahoo in 2012 posted its first revenue gain in four years. The company continues to struggle in a critical area, display advertising. Yahoo revenues slipped year over year in that category. But the company made up for that with stronger-than-expected growth in search ads.

Reuters CEO Marissa Mayer

Past investor worries about Mayer�s leadership also appear to have dissipated. She had rattled Wall Street after Yahoo announced that she was reviewing the company�s strategy, including a plan to return a big chunk of the proceeds from the sale of its shares in Alibaba to shareholders.

That triggered speculation that Mayer was considering big acquisitions. But that view has changed.

�People feel that Marissa is not going to squander the cash,� BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis told MarketWatch last week.

Still, some analysts wonder about Yahoo�s position in a fast-changing market dominated by robust competitors led by Google Inc., Facebook Inc. and others.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson wrote: �We are still waiting for something bold from Yahoo.�

Despite the headwinds, he said, the company�s guidance for 2013 doesn�t point to a bold game plan. �We would describe Yahoo�s new strategy as doing what it was doing before, but better and more mobile. This continues to feel less than bold and not the type of direction that we expect to yield vastly different results.�

He added: �If Yahoo was on the verge of something dramatic and bold, we think we would have had much different 2013 guidance.�

Does This Newest iPad Rumor Matter for Investors?

The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) �rumor mill never rests, and the newest rumbling is that the company is preparing to release a new iPad model in the near future. This particular rumor isn't exactly the most exciting one, but it still has some implications for investors.

More art than science
9to5Mac has caught wind that Apple is about to add a new storage configuration to the fourth-generation iPad with Retina display and offer it with 128 GB of storage for the first time. Not only have developers begun noticing code in the newest build of iOS 6.1 pointing to such a device, but 9to5Mac's source at a "high-profile U.S. retailer" has also confirmed the move along with pricing information.

Following Apple's standard practice, it will charge an extra $100 for a bump up to the next storage configuration, which will result in this lineup.

Model	16 GB	32 GB	64 GB	128 GB
iPad 4	$499	$599	$699	$799*
iPad 4 with LTE	$629	$729	$829	$929*

Sources: Apple and 9to5Mac. *Estimated.

Apple has perfected the art of overcharging for NAND flash in a way that consumers don't even mind. Adding incremental levels of storage costs Apple very little, yet it dramatically expands the functionality of the device from the user's perspective.

This will hurt you more than it hurts me
The fact that Apple may be considering adding a 128 GB model to the full-sized iPad lineup suggests several things. First, it may indicate that there is currently healthy demand for the 64 GB model, which carries the highest gross margin. A 128 GB model will carry an even higher gross margin, since the incremental cost of going fro 64 GB of NAND flash to 128 GB of NAND flash is nowhere close to $100.

It turns out that Samsung, one of Apple's numerous flash suppliers, just recently started mass producing 128 GB NAND chips destined for smartphones and tablets.

However, any upward pressure on average selling prices due to strong demand for the 64 GB model would be offset by the lower price points of the iPad 2 and iPad Mini, which are seeing strong demand and unit sales.

It's all about positioning
Perhaps more important, the addition of a 128 GB model says a lot about where Apple may position the full-sized iPad. The tablet market is in the process of segmenting between small (7-inch to 8-inch) and full-sized (9-inch to 11-inch) devices.

The small-sized segment is primarily dominated by the likes of Amazon.com's Kindle Fire HD, Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Nexus 7, and the iPad Mini. This category of tablets is widely considered primarily consumption devices, since the smaller form factor makes it difficult to get real work done.

On the other hand, full-sized tablets are now trying to be considered viable alternatives for productivity machines like laptops. Apple has been trying to fight the perception that the iPad is "for consumption only" for years, and only recently have full-sized tablets achieved performance levels where they can be used for productivity.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) in particular is very interested in establishing a name for its Surface Pro as a laptop replacement for productivity users, which is due out next month. Surface Pro supports all legacy Windows applications since it runs on a familiar Intel�chip, and is priced between Ultrabooks and Apple's MacBook Air.

Apple's addition of a 128 GB model could even be seen as a move upmarket and will still undercut the pricing of Surface Pro for prospective buyers in that market segment.

Model	Display	64 GB Price	128 GB Price
iPad 4	9.7-inch	$699	$799*
iPad 4 with LTE	9.7-inch	$829	$929*
Surface Pro	10.6-inch	$899	$999

Sources: Apple, Microsoft, and 9to5Mac. *Estimated.

Surface tablets have an advantage in productivity since they run Microsoft Office, which remains the standard productivity suite despite Google's inroads in that market with its Apps offerings. Microsoft may be about to shoot itself in the foot in that respect, since it's widely expected to be working on a version of Office for iOS.

Why it matters
What seems like a minor move by Apple to add a 128 GB storage option to the iPad could actually represent some opportunities in terms of slightly better iPad margins, higher average selling prices, and appeal to the productivity niche of the tablet market.

As traders dumped their Apple shares last week, were you resolving to hold your ground -- or even buy more? Emotions aside, Apple's growth story is far from over, and the company still has massive opportunities ahead. We've outlined them right here in The Motley Fool's premium Apple research service, and it may�give you the courage�to be greedy when others are fearful. If you're looking for some guidance on Apple's prospects, get started by�clicking here.

MarketWatch First Take: Can Ford win in Europe?

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Ford Motor Co.�s latest results told tales of victory and defeat. Investors paid most attention to defeat.

Ford reported Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit jumped 54% from a year ago, far better than Wall Street expected.

But Ford F �shares promptly tumbled 6% to $12.95, making Ford one of the session�s worst performers. Read about Ford's fourth-quarter results.

Among the reasons for the sell-off was Ford�s prediction that its 2013 operating profit will be no better than in 2012. Investors were hoping for more than that, especially given the company�s solid performance this past year in North America.

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But then there�s Europe. Ford lost $732 million there this past quarter, almost four times its $190 million year-ago loss. For the full year, Ford Europe�s losses plunged to $1.75 billion from $27 million in 2011.

The end is not in sight.

Despite lots of heavy lifting already, Ford Europe warned of a $2 billion loss this year. That�s up from its previous prediction of a $1.75 billion loss and dwarfs gains the company has made in other overseas markets.

So what�s up with Europe? The problems are many. Worn down by a string of national debt crises and economic turmoil, European consumers are in no mood to extend themselves financially. That�s killing car sales.

Meanwhile, the euro has regained ground against the dollar, raising the cost of pensions Ford pays to thousands of its European retirees.

On the one hand, Ford assures investors it can meet the challenge, claiming it�s �on track to deliver its European transformation plan.�

But it also had this to say: �Since providing guidance in October, Ford�s outlook for industry volume has deteriorated � The business environment remains uncertain, and Ford will continue to monitor the situation in Europe and take further action as necessary.�

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It�s not clear what further action the company has in mind. It�s well on its way to cutting manufacturing capacity there by 18% and has added about $1 billion, included in its $2 billion loss estimate, in restructuring charges.

Despite the unnerving update, several auto industry analysts urged investors to stay calm.

Peter Nesvold at Jefferies wrote: �We would not get too caught up in the very near term; one has to believe the shares have tremendous upside if Ford comes even close to replicating its North American restructuring success in Europe.�

Sterne Agee�s Michael Ward noted: �European restructuring actions are accelerating � Inventory levels in Europe are at an all-time low which should help to provide more stability in production and pricing going forward.�

So there it is. Ford�s aggressive European restructuring campaign could give it a big jump on competitors when the auto market eventually recovers. That was certainly the case in North America.

If it again proves the case in Europe, today�s dip might make it a good time to buy Ford. But given Europe�s problems, an un-hedged conviction play is probably not a good move for the impatient investor.

� Jim Jelter

AAPL: FYQ3 Estimates Too High, Say Bernstein, Baird

Some on the Street today were pondering whether estimates for Apple (AAPL) for the June-ending fiscal Q3 are too high following the company’s Q1 report last Wednesday, at which time it introduced a new style of quarterly forecasting.

Consensus for that June quarter stands at $41.05 billion in revenue and $9.81 per share in profit. That is down from a prior estimate of $44.16 billion and $11.32 before the report.

As I mentioned this morning, R.W. Baird‘s William Power cut his rating on the shares to Neutral from Buy, and cut his price target to $465 from $570, writing that “With estimates likely to fall further and gross margin concerns likely to linger, we believe the shares could drop further, despite the sharp sell-off and valuation.”

Rather than the current quarter, Power thinks the June quarter is the “bigger concern.” He’s forecasting $36.2 billion in revenue and $8.53 per share. Power thinks either the Street is modeling too great a number for iPhone shipments, or else they’re counting on a refresh of theiPad prior to June that he hasn’t yet included in his model:

Current FQ3 consensus forecasts call for just a 4.9% sequential decline in revenue from FQ2 to FQ3, whereas we forecast a 13.4% sequential decline. We forecast FQ2 revenue of $41.8 billion dropping to $36.2 billion in FQ3, with consensus calling for FQ2 revenue of $43.3 billion dropping to $41.2 billion. We surmise the Street may be assuming a smaller decline in iPhone sales. We currently forecast iPhone shipments dropping from 35.4 million in FQ2 to 29.0 million in FQ3, whereas the Street appears to be forecasting iPhone shipments in the low 30 million range as best we can tell. One other possible explanation for the FQ3 discrepancy is that we are not currently modeling an iPad refresh in the June quarter, which has been customary over the past couple of years, due to the fact that the iPad line was just refreshed in the fall. For argument sake, if we added another 5 million iPads to FQ3 our forecast, that would add roughly $2 billion to our revenue forecast, still below consensus by a fair margin. A launch at China Mobile or new product would also be additive to our current forecasts.

Likewise, Toni Sacconaghi withBernstein Research, who maintains an Outperform rating on the stock, and a $725 price target, writes that 2H estimates (particularly for the June quarter, FY Q3) appear too high” and that “consensus is forecasting a 1% sequential decline in iPhones in FY Q3, which is historically unprecedented in the absence of a new device � which we would not hold our breath for (at least at this point).”

Sacconaghi models Q3 revenue of $35.7 billion and EPS of $8.52. Like Power, he thinks the Street is perhaps betting too hard on new product introductions prior to June:

Yes, a new iPhone introduction in the month of June could possibly result in consensus expectations for the quarter being reasonable, but (1) the new iPhone had better launch early in June (our forecast is about 8M units below consensus, and assumes a new iPhone launch in the Sept qtr); and (2) we will not know for certain about the timing of such a device until May at the earliest� meaning that there is going to be significant uncertainty throughout this quarter and until Apple reports in April about whether Q3 estimates are realistic/low enough. – We believe other new products (new iPad, TV set) or a major carrier addition (China Mobile (CHL)) are not enough to bridge the gap in consensus’s Q3 estimates. It is possible that consensus is modeling major carrier additions and a low priced iPhone, but betting on the specific timing of one or both is risky.

Sacconaghi also is wary of the new form of forecasting:

In essence, Apple executives were saying, “we are no longer going to provide low-ball guidance that we are going to crush; this guidance range is realistic, get in line”, which sell-siders largely did, albeit at the high end of the range [...] Perhaps Apple’s approach to its new guidance should have included estimates for the full FY � because to us, the specter of further downward revisions could continue to spook investors in the near term.

Apple shares today rose $9.95, or 2.3%, to close at $449.83. The stock is up another $1.67, or 0.4%, at $451.50 in late trading.

Intel’s Otellini Proposes Tax Credits For Building U.S. Factories

Intel (INTC) CEO Paul Otellini yesterday proposed that the federal government provide tax credits or tax holidays for companies that build new U.S. factories as a way to promote job growth.

Otellini asserted in a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that it costs $1 billion more to build, equip and operate a semiconductor manufacturing plant in the U.S. than in other countries – and that 90% of the difference reflects tax and incentive policies, and not labor costs.

“So I propose we take a page from others’ playbooks and provide incentives for companies to build factories here that will employ our workers,” he said, according to a transcript of his remarks. “We should offer tax credits or a 5-10 year tax holiday to companies, domestic or foreign, that want to set up or expand a factory in the U.S. This will bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., employ our workers and stimulate out economy…at no cost to us. It’s time to who the world that America is open for business.”

He also proposed that U.S. corporate tax rates be reduced to a level about equal to those of other countries, and Otellini called for the removal of regulations that “needlessly deter investment.”

Apple: Pacific Crest Lifts Ests

And here’s another one.

Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves this morning raised estimates on Apple (AAPL), citing “improved iPhone and iPad supply.”

The analyst now sees EPS for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September of $4.37, up from $4.31, and way above the Street consensus at $4.01. For FY 2011, he now sees profits of $18.43 a share, up from $18.05. For FY 2012, he expects a nice round $20 a share. Hargreaves keeps his Outperform rating and $330 target on the stock.

The analyst boosted his FY Q4 iPad estimate to to 4.85 million units, from 4.7 million.

AAPL is up $1.26, or 0.4%, to $290.20.

Earlier this morning:

• Nice Hobby! Apple TV Reportedly Selling Out In Many Stores
• Apple: BMO Ups Estimates; Boosts Forecast For iPhone Sales

Top Stocks For 1/29/2013-18

Company: McAfee Inc, MFE

Price: 47.27

Change: +57.90%

Volume: 35.7M

 

Intel Corp. said Thursday it is buying computer-security software maker McAfee Inc. for $7.68 billion as the chip-maker adds to its arsenal of tools to serve an increasing array of Internet-connected devices, including mobile phones. Intel, which is based in Santa Clara, Calif., said security is now a fundamental component of online computing, but today’s approach to security isn’t adequate for the growing availability of Internet connections on mobile phones, medical devices, ATMs, automobiles and elsewhere.

McAfee, Inc. operates as a security technology company that secures systems and networks worldwide. The company’s endpoint security offerings secure corporate and consumer computer systems, which are connected to corporate systems and networks, and home PCs; system security products include anti-virus, anti-spyware and anti-spam, desktop firewall, host intrusion prevention, Web security, host network access control, Web filtering for endpoint, and device control; endpoint encryption products use encryption to safeguard information residing on various devices; and data loss prevention products prevent unintentional data loss; consumer security offerings shield consumers from identity theft, phishing scams, spyware, malicious Web sites, and other threats that endanger the online experience; and mobile security solutions safeguard mobile terminals, applications, and content. Its network security offerings comprise firewall, intrusion detection and prevention, network access control, network behavior analysis, network threat response, Web, email, and data loss prevention security appliances and solutions; and McAfee SECURE standard provides a level of security that an online merchant can reasonably achieve to help provide consumers with better protection when interacting with Web sites and shopping online.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

3 U.K. Stocks Paying Top-Dollar Income

LONDON -- It's official: Sterling is now the world's ugliest currency. If the British pound was a person, it would lock itself indoors out of shame. But this could be an opportunity for U.K. investors, because a handful of FTSE 100 stocks pay their dividends in dollars and euros, which are looking a lot more attractive right now. Does this make these stocks a beautiful investment?

BHP Billiton
With the pound falling to an eight-month low against the greenback, who wouldn't want to receive their income in dollars right now? If you invest in mining giant�BHP Billiton� (LSE: BLT  ) , that's exactly what you get. It currently yields 3.4%, safely covered 2.9 times, and generously paid in greenbacks, which means your income is worth 3% more year to date. With some analysts suggesting the pound could fall by anything up to 20% in 2013, there could be a lot more to follow. Better still, because BHP Billiton is listed on the FTSE 100, you are buying with pounds and getting dollars in return. Now that is beautiful.

I can see plenty of other reasons to buy this globally diversified miner. BHP Billiton's strategy is to invest in large, long-life, low-cost, expandable, upstream assets, spread across different commodities regions and markets. This makes it a diversified and relatively defensive stock (for a miner). I wouldn't call it low-risk, though. It remains a play on global growth in general, and Chinese growth in particular, both of which remain shaky. The recent bull run has left BHP Billiton looking more expensive than it was, with the share price of 23% since last June to 21 pounds. But it has dipped slightly, tracking metals prices lower. A little more slippage, and you might find the perfect time to serve yourself a dollop of dollar dividends.

Royal Dutch Shell
Investors in Anglo-Dutch�Royal Dutch Shell� (LSE: RDSB  ) (NYSE: RDS-B  ) were already enjoying its juicy 4.6% yield, but the slump in the value of the pound has made it that little bit tastier. I have been holding this oil and gas giant for years, but recent share-price growth has been disappointing. The vertically integrated oil majors don't automatically benefit from high oil prices because they have deliberately reduced their exposure by diversifying into storage, transportation, refining, chemical processing, and retailing. I still think Shell has a great long-term future, especially if it is correct in forecasting that global natural gas demand will increase by 60% from 2010 to 2030. With exploration interests as far apart as China, South Africa, and Ukraine, Shell has a place in every investor's portfolio. Especially today, when it trades at less than 9 times earnings. Analysts; consensus are putting its Q4 profits at 4 billion pounds, a 2.5% increase from 3.9 billion pounds in Q3. Now looks like a good time to buy Shell. After that, you can sit back and let the dollars roll in.

Unilever
Unilever� (LSE: ULVR  ) (NYSE: UL  ) is another Anglo-Dutch success story, and much more loved by markets. This purveyor of everyday household goods has enjoyed almost constant share-price growth since the financial crisis, and now it looks that little bit more attractive, once you remember its dividends are paid in euros. That didn't look so clever last year, when the single currency was looking sickly, and even the pound was hanging tough by comparison, but it looks a lot brighter now. Investors today get a yield of 3.8%, but that's worth 8.5% more to U.K. investors than it was last July, when the pound briefly hit 1.28 euros (it's now below 1.17 euros). That euro-denominated yield certainly isn't the main reason to invest in Unilever. It is a well-managed company selling many popular products, and it's now selling them to swaths of emerging-market consumers. This isn't a get-rich-quick stock -- earnings-per-share growth looks modest at 2% and 8% over the next couple of years, and it trades at around 18 times earnings. But you should get rich slowly, which is possibly even better.

Five more to think about
If you're looking for more great dividend opportunities, you might find them in our special in-depth report, "8 Top Blue Chips Held by Britain's Super Investor."

The report by Motley Fool analysts is completely free and shows where Invesco-Perpetual's dividend dazzler�Neil Woodford�believes�the best high-yield stocks are to be found�today. Availability of this report is strictly limited, so please�download it now.

Are You Expecting This from Entegris?

Entegris (Nasdaq: ENTG  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Jan. 31. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Entegris's revenues will grow 1.5% and EPS will decrease -21.4%.

The average estimate for revenue is $166.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.11.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Entegris recorded revenue of $184.4 million. GAAP reported sales were 6.6% higher than the prior-year quarter's $173.0 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.16. GAAP EPS of $0.13 for Q3 were 19% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.16 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 44.4%, 120 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 16.8%, 130 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 9.8%, 290 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $714.2 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.57.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 134 members out of 148 rating the stock outperform, and 14 members rating it underperform. Among 34 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 33 give Entegris a green thumbs-up, and one give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Entegris is outperform, with an average price target of $11.00.

Is Entegris the best semiconductor stock for you? You may be missing something obvious. Check out the semiconductor company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

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SEC Charges UBS Arm With Improper Mutual Fund Pricing

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The Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday charged an investment advisory arm of UBS with failing to properly price securities in three mutual funds that it managed, which resulted in a misstatement to investors of the net asset values of those funds.

Because the misconduct was revealed during the course of an SEC examination, it minimized harm to investors, the SEC says. In settling the charges without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings, UBSGAM agreed to be censured and to pay a $300,000 penalty.

The SEC’s Enforcement Division says that it began investigating UBS Global Asset Management (UBSGAM) following a referral from SEC examiners who conducted a routine exam of the firm, which is an SEC-registered investment advisor. “The SEC’s investigation further determined that during a two-week period, UBSGAM did not follow the mutual funds’ fair valuation procedures in pricing certain illiquid fixed-income securities in the portfolios of the mutual funds,” the division announced.

Merri Jo Gillette, regional director of the SEC’s Chicago Regional Office, said in a statement that UBS Global Asset Management “failed to fulfill one of its core delegated responsibilities on behalf of mutual funds it advises–to price securities in the mutual funds accurately.” Fortunately, she said, “this misconduct was brought to light quickly, so the duration was short and the harm to investors minimal.”

According to the SEC’s order instituting administrative proceedings against UBSGAM, the firm purchased on behalf of the mutual funds approximately 54 complex fixed-income securities in June 2008 at an aggregate price of approximately $22 million. "Most of the securities were part of subordinated tranches of nonagency mortgage-backed securities whose underlying collateral generally consisted of mortgages that did not conform to the requirements necessary for inclusion in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed or issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. The securities purchased also included asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations," the SEC says.

The SEC’s order finds that following the purchases, all but six of the securities were then valued at prices substantially in excess of the transaction prices, including many at least 100% higher.

Can Merck Meet These Numbers?

Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings around Feb. 1. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Merck's revenues will contract -6.8% and EPS will wither -16.5%.

The average estimate for revenue is $11.46 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.81.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Merck notched revenue of $11.49 billion. GAAP reported sales were 4.4% lower than the prior-year quarter's $12.02 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.95. GAAP EPS of $0.56 for Q3 were 1.8% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.55 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 64.5%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 21.7%, 10 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 15.1%, 100 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $47.00 billion. The average EPS estimate is $3.80.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 2,689 members out of 2,897 rating the stock outperform, and 208 members rating it underperform. Among 772 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 733 give Merck a green thumbs-up, and 39 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Merck is outperform, with an average price target of $46.14.

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• Add Merck to My Watchlist.