Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this morning weighs in with the result of a survey his firm conducted “recently” of 400 consumers in New York, Minnesota and California, China and South Korea, which seemed to him to show that Apple‘s (AAPL) iPhone will “take share over the next few years.”
Munster, who has an Overweight rating on Apple shares and a $910 price target, writes that with 52% of the sample population already owning an iPhone, 65% said they will buy an iPhone when they buy their next device, compared to just 19% who said they’d buy a phone based on Google‘s (GOOG) Android software.
That result suggests to him “a 13ppts change in market share,” writes Munster, though he’s adjusting that for the iPhone bias of the sample and projecting a five to ten point growth in market share.
Munster sees Apple perhaps rising from “the low 20% range” of all smartphone market share to perhaps “the low 30% range by 2015.”
Munster further presumes that the numbers suggest a kind of guarantee for iPhone sales in the fiscal year starting in October, when, as most presume, the next iPhone model will have arrived:
Most importantly, 51% of consumers that planned on making the iPhone their next smartphone (whether current iPhone users or not) said they were waiting for the iPhone 5. We believe this suggests that as much as 50% of our estimated iPhone units for FY13 are in the bag (~170 million iPhone users x 94% re-buy x 51% iPhone 5 planned purchase).
Apple shares today are up 38 cents at $607.29.
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